Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $1.2K in 24h volume, and $724.9 in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$724.9
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
96.6%
Change
+17.5%
High
96.6%
Low
65.5%
Philadelphia Phillies moved from 79% to 96.6% over the last 6 hours, trading between 65.5% and 96.6%.
Philadelphia Phillies price history from Polymarket CLOB.
25 points
This market asks whether the Chicago White Sox will beat the Philadelphia Phillies by at least three runs in the June 7 MLB game. The spread matters because a narrow White Sox win does not count here; only a bigger margin cashes the Chicago side, while any Phillies win, tie, or smaller White Sox victory goes the other way.
The event is an upcoming regular-season matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for June 7 at 1:35 PM ET. The settlement rule is specific: the market resolves to Chicago White Sox only if Chicago wins by 3 or more runs, and it resolves to Philadelphia Phillies in every other outcome, including a tie. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the makeup game is completed; if it is canceled with no makeup, it settles 50-50.
Run-line markets like this one focus on margin, not just who wins, so a team can be the better side on the scoreboard and still lose this market if the victory is too small. That creates uncertainty around lineup strength, starting pitching, bullpen reliability, and whether one team can separate late in the game, which is especially relevant in MLB where one-run and two-run games are common. The market is pricing the disagreement over whether the White Sox can win convincingly enough, not merely whether they can be competitive.
The biggest drivers before first pitch are the confirmed starting pitchers, final lineups, and any late injury or rest news, because those directly affect how likely Chicago is to create a multi-run gap. Once the game starts, early scoring, bullpen usage, and whether the White Sox or Phillies can add insurance runs can move the outlook quickly on a spread of -2.5. Rain delays or postponement news also matter here because they can change whether the game is played on schedule or pushed to a makeup date.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify the official final score of the game, since the winning margin determines the outcome and not just the winner. If the game is delayed or postponed, the key question is whether MLB reschedules it as a makeup game, because the market remains open until the game is actually completed. The primary settlement source is the official result recognized by MLB, with credible reporting only used if final official statistics are not available within 24 hours after the event ends.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $1.2K in 24h volume, and $724.9 in liquidity.
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Chicago White Sox
3.5%
Philadelphia Phillies
96.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for June 7 at 1:35 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game by 3 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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Spread
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7/6/2026
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