Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)

What this market is about

The event is an upcoming regular-season matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for June 7 at 1:35 PM ET. The settlement rule is specific: the market resolves to Chicago White Sox only if Chicago wins by 3 or more runs, and it resolves to Philadelphia Phillies in every other outcome, including a tie. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the makeup game is completed; if it is canceled with no makeup, it settles 50-50.

Why the market exists

Run-line markets like this one focus on margin, not just who wins, so a team can be the better side on the scoreboard and still lose this market if the victory is too small. That creates uncertainty around lineup strength, starting pitching, bullpen reliability, and whether one team can separate late in the game, which is especially relevant in MLB where one-run and two-run games are common. The market is pricing the disagreement over whether the White Sox can win convincingly enough, not merely whether they can be competitive.

What can move the price

The biggest drivers before first pitch are the confirmed starting pitchers, final lineups, and any late injury or rest news, because those directly affect how likely Chicago is to create a multi-run gap. Once the game starts, early scoring, bullpen usage, and whether the White Sox or Phillies can add insurance runs can move the outlook quickly on a spread of -2.5. Rain delays or postponement news also matter here because they can change whether the game is played on schedule or pushed to a makeup date.

How to read the current probability