Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $665.3 in 24h volume, and $956.2 in liquidity.
Probability
7%
24h Volume
$665.3
Liquidity
$956.2
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
83%
Change
-0.5%
High
91.5%
Low
83%
Philadelphia Phillies moved from 83.5% to 83% over the last month, trading between 83% and 91.5%.
Philadelphia Phillies price history from Polymarket CLOB.
5 points
This market asks whether the Chicago White Sox can beat the Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs or more in their June 7 MLB game. Because the spread is set at White Sox -3.5, a narrow Chicago win is not enough; the result depends on margin, not just the winner.
The event is the scheduled MLB matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies on June 7 at 1:35 PM ET. The market resolves to Chicago White Sox only if Chicago wins by at least 4 runs; any other final result, including a Phillies win or a game tied at the official end, resolves to Philadelphia Phillies under the market rules. If the game is postponed, it stays open until the makeup game is completed, and if it is canceled with no makeup game, it resolves 50-50.
Run-line markets like White Sox -3.5 are sensitive to how lopsided a game might be, which is often harder to judge than simply picking the winner. Baseball scores can swing quickly because of starting pitching, bullpen usage, lineup changes, and late-game blowouts, so the market is pricing the chance that Chicago wins big enough to clear a four-run cushion.
Anything that changes the expected margin can move this market, especially confirmed starting pitchers, last-minute lineup news, and whether key regulars are rested or unavailable. Weather and park conditions can matter in baseball because they affect run scoring, and an early lead can change how managers use relievers in a way that influences the final spread. Once the game starts, early scoring, pitching exits, and bullpen performance are the most direct game events that can shift the outlook.
The current market price implies roughly a 7% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Read the settlement rules carefully: this is a spread market, not a moneyline, so Chicago must win by 4 or more for the White Sox side to cash. The primary source of truth is the official final statistics recognized by MLB, and if official final stats are delayed beyond 24 hours, credible consensus reporting can be used. If the game is postponed, check the home team schedule on MLB.com for the makeup date, because the market stays open until the game is actually completed.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $665.3 in 24h volume, and $956.2 in liquidity.
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Chicago White Sox
7%
Philadelphia Phillies
93%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for June 7 at 1:35 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game by 4 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 7%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
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Liquidity
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
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24h Vol
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Liquidity
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
View market
