Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 32%, $575.4 in 24h volume, and $16.9K in liquidity.
Probability
32%
24h Volume
$575.4
Liquidity
$16.9K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
85.5%
Change
+18%
High
85.5%
Low
54%
Chicago White Sox moved from 67.5% to 85.5% over the last month, trading between 54% and 85.5%.
Chicago White Sox price history from Polymarket CLOB.
5 points
This market asks whether the Philadelphia Phillies will cover a -2.5 run spread against the Chicago White Sox in their June 7 MLB game. In plain terms, the Phillies must win by 3 or more runs for the Philadelphia side to settle as the winner; a 1-run win, a loss, or a tie all settle for the White Sox side.
The event is the MLB matchup listed between the Chicago White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for June 7 at 1:35 PM ET. The settlement rule is straightforward: Philadelphia wins the market only if it wins the game by at least three runs, while Chicago wins in every other outcome, including a tie. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the game is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, it resolves 50-50.
Run-line markets are popular because a baseball team can win the game without necessarily covering a bigger margin. That creates a real split between a straight-up winner and a spread result, especially in matchups where one team is expected to be stronger but the final score can still land close. Readers watching this market are really watching whether Philadelphia can separate itself on the scoreboard rather than just come away with a win.
The biggest drivers are the starting pitchers, confirmed lineups, late scratches, and any weather or postponement risk that could affect how the game is played. In baseball, a favorite can look much more likely to cover if it gets early offense and a strong outing from the starter, while bullpen usage or a close late game can make a -2.5 spread harder to clear. Because the spread requires a three-run margin, late-inning scoring and managerial decisions can matter as much as the early game script.
The current market price implies roughly a 32% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Before the market resolves, check that the game is actually completed and not shifted to a makeup date, since postponed games remain open until finished. The key source of truth is the official final game statistics recognized by MLB or the event organizers, with credible reporting only coming into play if official final stats are still unavailable after 24 hours. The tie condition also matters here: if the game ends tied for any reason under the market rules, it resolves to Chicago White Sox, so the exact final result should be verified rather than assumed.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 32%, $575.4 in 24h volume, and $16.9K in liquidity.
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Philadelphia Phillies
31.5%
Chicago White Sox
68.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for June 7 at 1:35 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game by 3 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 32%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
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Liquidity
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
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24h Vol
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Liquidity
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
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