Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 14%, $5.2K in 24h volume, and $10.4K in liquidity.
Probability
14%
24h Volume
$5.2K
Liquidity
$10.4K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
9%
Change
-15.5%
High
36%
Low
9%
Philadelphia Phillies moved from 24.5% to 9% over the last 6 hours, trading between 9% and 36%.
Philadelphia Phillies price history from Polymarket CLOB.
25 points
This market is about whether the Philadelphia Phillies will beat the Chicago White Sox by at least four runs in their June 7 MLB game. Because the spread is set at Phillies -3.5, a normal close win is not enough for the Phillies side to resolve; they need a sizable margin. It is a useful page to watch because baseball run lines can swing quickly with starting pitching, lineup changes, and late-game scoring.
The event is the MLB matchup between the Chicago White Sox and the Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for June 7 at 1:35 PM ET. The market resolves to Philadelphia Phillies only if Philadelphia wins by 4 or more runs; any White Sox win, any Phillies win by 1 to 3 runs, or a tie game resolves to Chicago White Sox under the rules provided. If the game is postponed, it stays open until the makeup game is played; if it is canceled with no makeup, the market settles 50-50.
Run-line markets are built around a simple but uncertain question: will one team win comfortably, or only by a narrow margin? In MLB, even a strong favorite can fail to cover a 3.5-run spread because late bullpen runs, extra innings, or a one-sided but not lopsided final score can change the outcome. Readers following this market are mainly watching whether Philadelphia can create enough separation on the scoreboard to clear the 4-run threshold.
The biggest price movers here are the announced starting pitchers, the confirmed lineups, and any last-minute injury or rest news, because those can change how likely a team is to score early and often. Once the game starts, early runs, bullpen usage, and whether the Phillies are protecting or extending a lead will matter a lot for the spread outcome. A postponed start, rain delay, or change to the scheduled game time can also matter because the market remains open until the game is actually completed.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 14% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market settles, verify that the game is actually played and completed, especially if weather or scheduling changes come up. The description says the primary source is the official final statistics recognized by the league or event organizers, with credible reporting used only if final stats are not published within 24 hours. If there is a postponement, the key thing to check is the home team’s MLB.com schedule for a makeup game, because that is the resolution path the rules point to.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 14%, $5.2K in 24h volume, and $10.4K in liquidity.
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Philadelphia Phillies
14.5%
Chicago White Sox
85.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for June 7 at 1:35 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game by 4 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 14%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
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Liquidity
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
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24h Vol
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Liquidity
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
View market
