Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 46%, $805.8 in 24h volume, and $710.1 in liquidity.
Probability
46%
24h Volume
$805.8
Liquidity
$710.1
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
53.5%
Change
-34.5%
High
94.5%
Low
52%
Chicago White Sox moved from 88% to 53.5% over the last hour, trading between 52% and 94.5%.
Chicago White Sox price history from Polymarket CLOB.
13 points
This market is about the Philadelphia Phillies winning by a wide enough margin to cover a -4.5 run spread against the Chicago White Sox. In plain terms, the Phillies must win by 5 runs or more for the market to resolve to Philadelphia; anything closer, including a White Sox win, goes the other way.
The event is an MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies scheduled for June 7 at 1:35 PM ET. The key question is not who wins outright, but whether Philadelphia finishes ahead by at least five runs, which is why the listed spread is Phillies (-4.5). If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the makeup game is played; if it is canceled with no makeup, it resolves 50-50.
Run-line markets like this hinge on how much separation there is between two teams, not just the final winner. That makes the exact score margin important, and even a comfortable-looking game can miss the number if the lead shrinks late or if the bullpen gives back runs. The White Sox/Phillies matchup matters here because baseball scoring is volatile enough that a strong favorite still has meaningful uncertainty around covering a 4.5-run spread.
The biggest drivers are the announced starting pitchers, lineups, and any late scratches or rest days, since those can change how likely a lopsided score looks before first pitch. In-game developments also matter: early scoring, bullpen usage, errors, and extra-inning risk can all change the chances that Philadelphia clears five runs. Because the market settles on final official scoring, late runs in either direction are especially important in a spread this large.
The current market price implies roughly a 46% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Check the official game status, the posted starting lineups, and whether the game is completed on the scheduled date or moved to a makeup date. The settlement rule uses the official final statistics recognized by the governing body, with credible reporting only as a backup if final stats are not published within 24 hours. If the game is postponed or canceled, the special settlement language in the description controls, so readers should verify whether a makeup game has been added before assuming the market is done.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 46%, $805.8 in 24h volume, and $710.1 in liquidity.
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Philadelphia Phillies
46%
Chicago White Sox
54%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for June 7 at 1:35 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game by 5 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 46%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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Spread
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7/6/2026
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24h Vol
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
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