Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 45%, $27.6K in 24h volume, and $747.3 in liquidity.
Probability
45%
24h Volume
$27.6K
Liquidity
$747.3
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
56.5%
Change
-6.5%
High
66.5%
Low
56.5%
Cleveland Guardians moved from 63% to 56.5% over the last month, trading between 56.5% and 66.5%.
Cleveland Guardians price history from Polymarket CLOB.
7 points
This market asks whether the New York Yankees will win their June 8 game against the Cleveland Guardians by at least two runs. Because the line is -1.5, a one-run Yankees win is not enough for the Yankees side to resolve here. The matchup is worth watching because a small late-game swing can flip the result even if one team is already ahead on the scoreboard.
The event is the scheduled MLB game between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians at 6:40 PM ET on June 8. The market resolves to "New York Yankees" only if New York wins by 2 or more runs; otherwise it resolves to "Cleveland Guardians," including a tie. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the makeup game is completed, and if it is canceled outright with no makeup, it settles 50-50.
Run-line markets like this depend on margin of victory, not just who wins, so there is room for disagreement even when both teams look competitive. A close game, bullpen changes, or a late extra-innings finish can all matter a lot to whether the Yankees clear -1.5. The current market signals show a very tight contest, with pricing that leaves room for either side to win by the required margin.
Starting lineups, a late scratch, or a surprise pitching change can move this market quickly because MLB run-line outcomes are heavily shaped by the matchup on the mound and in the middle of the order. During the game, early scoring, bullpen usage, and whether the Yankees hold a multi-run lead or let Cleveland keep it close are the biggest live drivers. Extra innings also matter here, since any walk-off or one-run ending would push the market to Cleveland.
The current market price implies roughly a 45% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
The main thing to verify is the official final score, since that determines whether New York covered -1.5 runs or not. If the game is delayed or postponed, check the home team’s schedule on MLB.com for any listed makeup game, because this market stays open until the game is actually completed. The listed resolution source is the official final statistics from the event organizers, with credible reporting used only if those official stats are not published within 24 hours after the game ends.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 45%, $27.6K in 24h volume, and $747.3 in liquidity.
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New York Yankees
44.5%
Cleveland Guardians
55.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 45%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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