Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 17%, $4K in 24h volume, and $14.9K in liquidity.
Probability
17%
24h Volume
$4K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
28.5%
Change
+1.5%
High
28.5%
Low
23.5%
New York Yankees moved from 27% to 28.5% over the last month, trading between 23.5% and 28.5%.
New York Yankees price history from Polymarket CLOB.
6 points
This market asks whether the New York Yankees will beat the Cleveland Guardians by at least four runs in their June 8 MLB game. Because the spread is set at Yankees -2.5, a standard one-run or two-run win is not enough for the Yankees side to settle "Yes," which makes the final margin the key thing to watch. The market is live into the game window and can shift with lineup news, pitching changes, and the score as it develops.
The event is an upcoming regular-season baseball game between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET. For this page, "New York Yankees" resolves if New York wins by 3 or more runs, while "Cleveland Guardians" resolves in every other case, including a tie. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the makeup game is completed; if it is canceled outright with no makeup, it settles 50-50.
Run-line markets like this are about margin, not just who wins, so a favorite can cover only if the final score is lopsided enough. That creates uncertainty around how the game script will unfold: whether the Yankees can pile up runs, whether Cleveland can keep it close, and whether either bullpen changes the late innings. The pricing reflects disagreement over whether New York is likely to win comfortably or whether the Guardians can keep the margin under three.
Starting pitchers, late lineup changes, and scratches can matter quickly because baseball spreads are sensitive to run prevention and offensive depth. Once the game starts, early scoring, bullpen usage, and any defensive or pitching trouble can move expectations about whether the Yankees are on pace to win by three or more. A postponement or suspension would also matter because the rules say the market stays open until the game is completed unless the game is canceled with no makeup.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 17% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important items are the official game status, the final score, and whether the contest finishes as scheduled or is moved to a makeup date. Resolution follows the official final statistics recognized by the governing body or event organizers, with credible reporting only if those final stats are not published within 24 hours after the game ends. Readers should also verify any rain delay, suspension, or cancellation note on the home team’s MLB schedule if the game does not finish normally.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 17%, $4K in 24h volume, and $14.9K in liquidity.
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New York Yankees
17%
Cleveland Guardians
83%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game by 3 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 17%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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