Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 18%, $2.1K in 24h volume, and $441.1 in liquidity.
Probability
18%
24h Volume
$2.1K
Liquidity
$441.1
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
19%
Change
-0.5%
High
19.5%
Low
16%
New York Yankees moved from 19.5% to 19% over the full available history, trading between 16% and 19.5%.
New York Yankees price history from Polymarket CLOB.
5 points
This market asks whether the New York Yankees will beat the Cleveland Guardians by 4 or more runs in their June 8 MLB game. Because the spread is set at Yankees (-3.5), the bet is not just about who wins, but whether New York wins comfortably enough to cover that margin.
The event is the upcoming regular-season game between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET. The market resolves to the Yankees only if New York wins by at least four runs; any Guardians win, any Yankees win by three runs or fewer, or a tie after the game is completed resolves to Cleveland. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the makeup game is played, and if the game is canceled with no makeup, it resolves 50-50.
Run-line markets like this one are about margin as much as outcome, so a strong favorite can still fail to cover even if it wins the game. The Yankees and Guardians are established MLB clubs with different offensive and pitching profiles from year to year, and that uncertainty around lineup strength, starter performance, bullpen usage, and late-game scoring is what makes the spread meaningful. Readers care because the answer depends on how the game unfolds inning by inning, not simply on who is favored on paper.
The biggest price moves usually come from the confirmed starting pitchers, any late lineup changes, and whether regulars are resting before first pitch. Once the game starts, early scoring, a short outing from the starter, or heavy bullpen exposure can quickly change the chance of a 4-plus-run Yankees win. A low-scoring, one-run, or back-and-forth game generally works against the Yankees covering -3.5, while an early blowout and sustained scoring do the opposite.
The current market price implies roughly a 18% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Before the market settles, check that the game actually finished and whether it was delayed, suspended, postponed, or canceled, since those outcomes change how the market resolves. The key settlement rule is the official final statistics recognized by MLB or the event organizers; if those are not published within 24 hours after the game ends, credible consensus reporting may be used instead. For postponed games, the home team’s schedule on MLB.com is the reference to find the makeup date, and a canceled game with no makeup would resolve 50-50 rather than to either team.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 18%, $2.1K in 24h volume, and $441.1 in liquidity.
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New York Yankees
18%
Cleveland Guardians
82%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game by 4 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 18%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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