Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $270.5 in 24h volume, and $3.5K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$270.5
Liquidity
$3.5K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
97.5%
Change
+8.5%
High
97.5%
Low
85%
Cleveland Guardians moved from 89% to 97.5% over the full available history, trading between 85% and 97.5%.
Cleveland Guardians price history from Polymarket CLOB.
6 points
This market is about whether the New York Yankees can cover a 4.5-run spread against the Cleveland Guardians in their June 8 MLB game. In plain terms, the Yankees need to win by 5 or more runs for the market to resolve to New York; any other result goes to Cleveland. Because baseball blowouts are less common than one-run games, the spread makes the exact margin of victory the key thing to watch.
The event is the upcoming MLB matchup between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET. The market resolves to the New York Yankees only if New York wins by at least five runs; if they win by fewer than five, lose, or the game ends tied, the Cleveland Guardians outcome wins. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the makeup game is played, and if it is canceled with no makeup, it settles 50-50.
The question here is not simply who wins, but whether the Yankees can win decisively enough to clear a 4.5-run line. That adds uncertainty because even strong teams often win by narrow margins, and late bullpen usage, defensive miscues, or an early lead that shrinks can change the final spread. Readers are essentially weighing whether New York’s offense and pitching matchup can produce a lopsided result rather than a routine victory.
Anything that changes the expected margin can move this market, especially starting pitcher announcements, lineup changes, rest days, or late scratches. Early scoring matters a lot in a spread market like this, since a big Yankees lead can make the cover look realistic, while a tight game through the middle innings usually points toward Cleveland. Live game state, including bullpen choices and whether either team is protecting a lead or chasing runs, is also especially important here.
The current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Before the market settles, check the official game status and final score from MLB’s recognized statistics, since that is the primary source of truth. If the game is postponed, the key thing to verify is whether MLB has listed a makeup game on the home team’s schedule; if there is no makeup and the game is canceled, the market resolves 50-50. Also watch for any ambiguity around the final margin, since this market depends specifically on whether the Yankees win by 5 or more runs, not just on who wins the game.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $270.5 in 24h volume, and $3.5K in liquidity.
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New York Yankees
2.1%
Cleveland Guardians
98%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game by 5 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
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Liquidity
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
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