Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 33%, $16.7K in 24h volume, and $22.8K in liquidity.
Probability
33%
24h Volume
$16.7K
Liquidity
$22.8K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
17%
Change
-17%
High
36.5%
Low
17%
Cleveland Guardians moved from 34% to 17% over the last month, trading between 17% and 36.5%.
Cleveland Guardians price history from Polymarket CLOB.
6 points
This market asks whether the Cleveland Guardians will win their June 8 MLB game against the New York Yankees by at least two runs. Because the line is set at Guardians -1.5, a one-run Cleveland win still counts for New York in this market, so the margin of victory matters as much as the winner.
The event is the scheduled Yankees-Guardians game at 6:40 PM ET on June 8. The market resolves to Cleveland only if the Guardians win by 2 or more runs; any Yankees win, a one-run Guardians win, or a tie goes to New York under the market rules. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the makeup game is completed, and if it is canceled with no makeup, it settles 50-50.
Run-line markets like this are sensitive to how strong each team looks on a given night, not just which club is more likely to win outright. A favorite can still lose the spread by winning too narrowly, which is why the Yankees outcome can remain live even if Cleveland wins the game. Readers are really watching whether Cleveland can create enough separation on the scoreboard to clear the -1.5 number.
The biggest swing factors are the starting pitchers, late lineup changes, bullpen availability, and any weather or postponement risk that could affect when and how the game is played. A confirmed scratch, a rested bullpen, or a surprise change to the batting order can matter more here than in a straight moneyline market because the margin must be at least two runs. Live scoring also matters: an early multi-run lead for Cleveland, or a tight late-game score, can quickly change how likely the Guardians are to cover.
The current market price implies roughly a 33% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
The key settlement rule is the official final score of the completed game, using MLB’s final statistics as the primary source. If the game is postponed, readers should check the Yankees or Guardians schedule on MLB.com for the makeup date, since the market remains open until that game is finished. The main ambiguity to watch for is whether the contest is completed on the original date or pushed back, because cancellation without a makeup leads to a 50-50 result rather than a normal winner-take-all settlement.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 33%, $16.7K in 24h volume, and $22.8K in liquidity.
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Cleveland Guardians
32.5%
New York Yankees
67.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "New York Yankees". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "New York Yankees". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 33%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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