Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 20%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $18K in liquidity.
Probability
20%
24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$18K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
10%
Change
-14.5%
High
26.5%
Low
10%
Cleveland Guardians moved from 24.5% to 10% over the last week, trading between 10% and 26.5%.
Cleveland Guardians price history from Polymarket CLOB.
14 points
This market is about whether the Cleveland Guardians will beat the New York Yankees by at least three runs in the scheduled June 8 game at 6:40 PM ET. It is a spread-style outcome, so the question is not just who wins, but whether Cleveland covers a -2.5 run margin. That makes the final score margin, not simply the winner, the key thing to watch.
The title points to a specific MLB matchup: Yankees vs. Guardians, with Cleveland needing a win by 3 or more runs for the market to resolve to "Cleveland Guardians." If the Yankees win, the game ends tied, or Cleveland wins by one or two runs, the outcome resolves to "New York Yankees." The market is tied to the listed game date and start time, and if the game is postponed it stays open until the makeup game is completed.
Run lines are inherently more uncertain than moneyline picks because a team can win outright without covering the spread, or lose narrowly and still fail to cover. For a matchup like Yankees-Guardians, readers may care about the market because it reflects expectations about lineup strength, pitching matchups, and whether either team can create a lopsided result rather than a close one. The current pricing shows the market leaning toward New York to avoid a Cleveland cover.
Starting pitcher changes, late scratches, resting regulars, or lineup news can all shift expectations about whether Cleveland can win by three or more. In-game scoring matters a lot too: an early Yankees lead, a bullpen-heavy game, or a late Cleveland rally can quickly change how likely a -2.5 cover looks. Because this is a run-margin market, even a game that stays competitive for most of the night can swing sharply on one big inning.
The current market price implies roughly a 20% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Check the official final score and the game status, since that determines whether Cleveland covered the -2.5 spread or not. If the game is postponed, the market remains open until the makeup game is played; if it is canceled with no makeup, the market resolves 50-50. The primary source is the official final statistics, but if those are not published within 24 hours, credible consensus reporting may be used instead, so the exact final score and any rescheduled game should be verified before treating the market as settled.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 20%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $18K in liquidity.
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Cleveland Guardians
20%
New York Yankees
80%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game by 3 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "New York Yankees". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "New York Yankees". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 20%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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