Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $143.1 in 24h volume, and $8.5K in liquidity.
Probability
10%
24h Volume
$143.1
Liquidity
$8.5K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
94%
Change
+12%
High
96%
Low
82%
New York Yankees moved from 82% to 94% over the last 6 hours, trading between 82% and 96%.
New York Yankees price history from Polymarket CLOB.
25 points
This market is about whether the Cleveland Guardians will win their June 8 game against the New York Yankees by at least four runs. Because the line is set at Guardians -3.5, it is not enough for Cleveland to simply win — the margin has to be large enough to clear that spread.
The event is the MLB matchup between the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET. The market resolves to Cleveland Guardians only if Cleveland wins by 4 or more runs; any Yankees win, or any Cleveland win by 3 runs or fewer, resolves to New York Yankees. If the game is postponed, it stays open until the game is completed, and if it is canceled with no makeup game, it resolves 50-50.
A spread market like this focuses on margin of victory, not just the winner, so the question is whether Cleveland can produce a lopsided result against New York. That makes team strength, starting pitching, bullpen usage, lineup decisions, and late-game scoring all matter more than a simple win-loss outcome.
Confirmed starters, lineup scratches, and late injury news can change expectations for run margin, especially if one team rests regular hitters or loses a key pitcher. In-game scoring swings also matter here: an early multi-run lead, a bullpen collapse, or extra insurance runs in the late innings can quickly change how likely a 4-plus-run Cleveland win looks. Because the market is tied to the final margin, a close game late usually pulls value toward New York, while a blowout or mounting lead pushes it toward Cleveland.
The current market price implies roughly a 10% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
The key thing to verify is the final score and official MLB game status, since the market settles on Cleveland only if the Guardians win by at least four runs. If the game is postponed, readers should check the home team’s MLB.com schedule for the makeup date; if it is canceled outright with no makeup, the market resolves 50-50. The primary source is the official final statistics, but if those are not published within 24 hours after the game ends, credible reporting may be used instead.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $143.1 in 24h volume, and $8.5K in liquidity.
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Cleveland Guardians
10%
New York Yankees
90%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game by 4 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "New York Yankees". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "New York Yankees". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 10%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
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Liquidity
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
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