Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 73%, $134.8K in 24h volume, and $10.3K in liquidity.
Probability
73%
24h Volume
$134.8K
Liquidity
$10.3K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
88.5%
Change
+40%
High
91.5%
Low
43%
Philadelphia Phillies moved from 48.5% to 88.5% over the last hour, trading between 43% and 91.5%.
Philadelphia Phillies price history from Polymarket CLOB.
13 points
This market asks whether the Philadelphia Phillies will beat the Toronto Blue Jays by at least two runs in their June 8 MLB game. Because the line is a run spread rather than a simple win-loss market, a one-run Phillies win still settles for Toronto, which makes the final margin especially important.
The event is the MLB game scheduled for June 8 at 7:07 PM ET between the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays. For this market to resolve to Philadelphia Phillies, the Phillies must win by 2 or more runs; any Blue Jays result, a tie, or a Phillies one-run win resolves to Toronto Blue Jays under the market rules. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the makeup game is played, while a full cancellation with no makeup would resolve 50-50.
Spread markets focus on margin, not just the winner, so the key uncertainty here is not only who wins but by how much. In baseball, that can swing on starting pitching, bullpen usage, late-game substitutions, and whether one team can turn a close game into a multi-run final. Readers care because the Phillies and Blue Jays are both established MLB clubs, and this specific line asks whether Philadelphia can create enough separation to cover -1.5.
Pre-game lineup news, a scratched starter, or a late change in the batting order can all shift expectations for run margin. Once the game starts, the market can move quickly on early scoring, pitching dominance, bullpen decisions, and whether the Phillies build an early lead or the Blue Jays keep it tight into the late innings. Because the settlement depends on the final official score, extra innings, late runs, or a one-run finish all matter a great deal here.
The current market price implies roughly a 73% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
The most important things to verify are the official final score, whether the game is completed without interruption, and whether any postponement creates a makeup game. The market rules say the primary source is the official final statistics recognized by the governing body or event organizers, with credible reporting used only if final stats are not published within 24 hours after the game ends. If the schedule changes, readers should check the home team’s MLB.com schedule for a listed makeup date, since that determines when the market can finally settle.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 73%, $134.8K in 24h volume, and $10.3K in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Philadelphia Phillies
73%
Toronto Blue Jays
27%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for June 8 at 7:07 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 73%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
--
Liquidity
--
Spread
0%
7/6/2026
View market--
24h Vol
--
Liquidity
--
Spread
0%
7/6/2026
View market
