Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 61%, $4.9K in 24h volume, and $8.8K in liquidity.
Probability
61%
24h Volume
$4.9K
Liquidity
$8.8K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
18%
Change
-45.5%
High
63.5%
Low
18%
Toronto Blue Jays moved from 63.5% to 18% over the last month, trading between 18% and 63.5%.
Toronto Blue Jays price history from Polymarket CLOB.
4 points
This market asks whether the Philadelphia Phillies will beat the Toronto Blue Jays by at least 3 runs in their June 8 MLB game. Because it is a run-spread market, a close win for Philadelphia is not enough; the Phillies need a margin of 3 or more for their side to settle true.
The event is the regular-season MLB game listed for June 8 at 7:07 PM ET between the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays. The market resolves to Philadelphia Phillies only if Philadelphia wins by 3 or more runs; any Toronto win, a one-run or two-run Phillies win, or a tie goes to Toronto Blue Jays under the market rules. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the makeup game is completed; if it is canceled with no makeup, it resolves 50-50.
Run-spread markets are about the size of the win, not just the winner, so there can be disagreement even when one team is favored outright. Phillies-Blue Jays is the kind of matchup where lineup strength, starting pitching, bullpen usage, and late scoring can change whether a win clears the 2.5-run threshold. Readers care because a game can look safe for one side and still miss the spread if it turns into a tight finish.
Any confirmed lineup news, a late pitching change, or an injury-related absence can move expectations quickly because those factors affect run production and run prevention. Once the game starts, early scoring, a starter leaving early, or heavy bullpen exposure can also change whether Philadelphia looks capable of building a three-run margin. Since the market resolves on final official scoring, a late rally, extra innings, or a one- or two-run final can matter just as much as who controlled most of the game.
The current market price implies roughly a 61% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
The key details are the official final score, whether the game is completed as scheduled, and whether any postponement creates a makeup game. The market’s primary source of truth is the official final statistics recognized by MLB or the event organizers, with credible reporting only used if those final stats are not published within 24 hours after the game ends. Because the Blue Jays win the market on any non-qualifying Phillies result, readers should check the actual margin, not just the winner, before assuming how it will settle.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 61%, $4.9K in 24h volume, and $8.8K in liquidity.
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Philadelphia Phillies
60.5%
Toronto Blue Jays
39.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for June 8 at 7:07 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game by 3 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 61%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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