Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 48%, $5.5K in 24h volume, and $15.6K in liquidity.
Probability
48%
24h Volume
$5.5K
Liquidity
$15.6K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
73%
Change
+45.5%
High
73%
Low
27.5%
Philadelphia Phillies moved from 27.5% to 73% over the full available history, trading between 27.5% and 73%.
Philadelphia Phillies price history from Polymarket CLOB.
4 points
This market asks whether the Philadelphia Phillies will beat the Toronto Blue Jays by four runs or more in their June 8 MLB game. The spread matters because a normal Phillies win is not enough here; they need a margin of at least four to settle to Philadelphia.
The event is the upcoming major league game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for June 8 at 7:07 PM ET. The market resolves to Philadelphia Phillies only if the Phillies win by 4 or more runs; any Toronto win, a Phillies win by 1 to 3 runs, or a tie settles to Toronto Blue Jays under the market rules. If the game is postponed, it stays open until the game is completed, and if it is canceled with no makeup game, it resolves 50-50.
Run-line markets like this reflect uncertainty about both the winner and the size of the margin. A team can look stronger on paper and still fail to cover a -3.5 spread if the game stays close, so the market is pricing not just who wins, but whether Philadelphia can create separation across nine innings. In baseball, that can turn on starting pitching, bullpen usage, defense, and whether either team strings together a big inning.
Late lineup changes, a scratched starter, or a bullpen-heavy pitching plan can all change how likely a four-run Phillies win looks. Because the market is tied to a specific score margin, early runs matter more than in a simple moneyline market: a quick Toronto lead can make Philadelphia’s cover much harder, while a large Phillies lead can push the market toward the Phillies outcome. Extra innings, a shortened game, or a rain delay that forces a different pitching pattern can also affect the outlook, as long as the game is ultimately completed.
The current market price implies roughly a 48% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
The key things to verify are the final official score, whether the game is completed as scheduled, and whether any postponement creates a makeup game that changes settlement timing. The primary source is the official final statistics recognized by MLB or the event organizers, with credible reporting used only if final stats are not published within 24 hours after the game ends. Readers should also pay attention to whether the result is a true Phillies win by four or more, because a three-run win still settles to Toronto Blue Jays under these rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 48%, $5.5K in 24h volume, and $15.6K in liquidity.
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Philadelphia Phillies
47.5%
Toronto Blue Jays
52.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for June 8 at 7:07 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game by 4 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 48%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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