Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 36%, $180.1 in 24h volume, and $1.6K in liquidity.
Probability
36%
24h Volume
$180.1
Liquidity
$1.6K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
61%
Change
+40.5%
High
61%
Low
18.5%
Philadelphia Phillies moved from 20.5% to 61% over the last week, trading between 18.5% and 61%.
Philadelphia Phillies price history from Polymarket CLOB.
12 points
This market asks whether the Philadelphia Phillies will beat the Toronto Blue Jays by at least five runs in their June 8 MLB game. Because the line is set at a fairly large margin, the key question is not just who wins, but whether Philadelphia can create a blowout rather than a close result.
The event is the scheduled MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays at 7:07 PM ET on June 8. For this market to resolve to Philadelphia Phillies, the Phillies must win by 5 or more runs; any Toronto win, a Phillies win by 4 or fewer, or a tie all resolve to Toronto Blue Jays under the market rules. If the game is postponed, it stays open until the makeup game is completed, and if it is canceled with no makeup, the market resolves 50-50.
Run-spread markets like this one are about margin, not just victory, so there is often a real gap between a team being favored to win and being favored to cover a large number of runs. The Phillies and Blue Jays are both established MLB clubs, but baseball scores can swing sharply based on starting pitching, bullpen performance, lineup strength, and whether one side can pile up runs early. The current market pricing suggests participants see a much stronger case for Toronto covering the spread than for Philadelphia winning by five or more.
The biggest price movers are the confirmed starting pitchers, late lineup changes, and any news about rest days, injuries, or scratches that affect run production. A strong early Phillies lead, especially if Philadelphia’s offense is consistently driving in runners, would tend to push this market toward the Phillies; a tight game, a pitchers’ duel, or an early Blue Jays edge would usually move it toward Toronto. Because the line is -4.5, late bullpen usage matters too: a comfortable but not dominant lead can still fail to cover if the Phillies do not add insurance runs or if the Blue Jays score late.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 36% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Check the official final score and run margin, since the market is settled strictly by whether Philadelphia wins by five or more. If the game does not finish on the scheduled date, the listed rule says to wait for the makeup game; if there is no makeup and the game is canceled entirely, the market goes 50-50. The primary source of truth is the official final statistics recognized by MLB or the event organizers, with credible reporting used only if final stats are not published within 24 hours after the game ends.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 36%, $180.1 in 24h volume, and $1.6K in liquidity.
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Philadelphia Phillies
36%
Toronto Blue Jays
64%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for June 8 at 7:07 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game by 5 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 36%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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