Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $109.2 in 24h volume, and $2.4K in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$109.2
Liquidity
$2.4K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
2%
Change
-12.5%
High
28.5%
Low
2%
Toronto Blue Jays moved from 14.5% to 2% over the last day, trading between 2% and 28.5%.
Toronto Blue Jays price history from Polymarket CLOB.
48 points
This market is asking whether the Toronto Blue Jays will beat the Philadelphia Phillies by at least 3 runs in their June 8 MLB matchup. Because the line is set at Toronto -2.5, a narrow Blue Jays win is not enough; the team has to win comfortably for the market to resolve to Toronto.
The event is the upcoming Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays game scheduled for June 8 at 7:07 PM ET. The resolution rule is straightforward: Toronto Blue Jays wins only if Toronto wins by 3 or more runs; any Phillies win, a tie, or a Toronto win by 1 or 2 runs resolves to Philadelphia Phillies. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the game is completed, and if it is canceled with no makeup game, it resolves 50-50.
Baseball run lines create more uncertainty than a simple moneyline because the margin of victory matters, not just the winner. A game can be competitive even when one side is favored, and the spread leaves room for late bullpen swings, blowouts, or a one-run finish that flips the outcome to Philadelphia under this rule set.
The biggest price moves usually come from the starting pitchers, lineup news, and any confirmed absences that change run-scoring expectations. In-game, early scoring, an inning-ending rally, or a starter leaving early can quickly affect whether Toronto looks capable of covering -2.5. Since the market settles on margin, a late Toronto lead by exactly one or two runs is still not enough, while a multi-run cushion changes the outlook sharply.
The current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Check the official game status, final score, and whether any postponement or makeup game changes the settlement timeline. The primary source of truth is the official final statistics from MLB or the governing body, with credible reporting only used if final stats are not published within 24 hours after the game ends. Readers should also confirm that the game finishes as scheduled, because a canceled game with no makeup would resolve 50-50 rather than to either team.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $109.2 in 24h volume, and $2.4K in liquidity.
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Toronto Blue Jays
4%
Philadelphia Phillies
96%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for June 8 at 7:07 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game by 3 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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