Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $1.1K in 24h volume, and $5.4K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$5.4K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
1.7%
Change
-8.3%
High
17%
Low
1.7%
Toronto Blue Jays moved from 10% to 1.7% over the last day, trading between 1.7% and 17%.
Toronto Blue Jays price history from Polymarket CLOB.
48 points
This market asks whether the Toronto Blue Jays will beat the Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs or more in their June 8 MLB matchup. Because the spread is set at Toronto -3.5, the question is not just who wins, but whether the Blue Jays win decisively enough to cover a fairly large margin.
The event is the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays game scheduled for June 8 at 7:07 PM ET, with settlement based on the final official result. Toronto must win by at least 4 runs for the market to resolve to the Blue Jays; any Phillies win, any Toronto win by 1–3 runs, or a tie all resolve to the Phillies side. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the makeup game is completed, and if it is canceled without a makeup, the market resolves 50-50.
Run-line markets like this one are about margin, not just outcome, so a team can be favored to win while still failing to cover. That creates uncertainty around game flow, starting pitching, bullpen use, and whether one team can build or protect a big lead. Readers watching this market are really weighing whether Toronto can separate itself enough to beat a strong Phillies club by a wide enough margin.
The biggest price movers are the announced starting pitchers, late lineup changes, and any confirmed injuries or rest decisions that affect either offense or bullpen depth. A hot start, an early multi-run inning, or signs that one team is leaning heavily on relievers can also change expectations for whether a 4-run margin is realistic. Because the market hinges on a specific margin, late-game score state matters a lot: a 2-run lead, for example, is very different from a 5-run lead even if the same team is ahead.
The current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Before the market settles, check that the game has actually been completed and that there is no postponement, since a postponed game stays open until the makeup date is played. The resolution is based on the official final statistics recognized by the league or event organizers, so the final box score is the key source of truth. If official stats are delayed for more than 24 hours after the game ends, the rules allow credible consensus reporting to be used instead, so readers should pay attention to the final score and any makeup-game notice on the home team’s MLB schedule.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $1.1K in 24h volume, and $5.4K in liquidity.
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Toronto Blue Jays
2.5%
Philadelphia Phillies
97.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for June 8 at 7:07 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game by 4 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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