Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $1K in 24h volume.
Probability
100%
24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$0
This market asks a very specific baseball question: will the Washington Nationals or Arizona Diamondbacks put up at least one run in the first inning of their June 6 game in Arizona? Because it settles on a single half-inning of scoring, it is much narrower than the final score and can turn quickly on the top or bottom of the first.
The event is the MLB matchup between the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks scheduled for June 6 at 4:10 PM ET. The outcome is simple: "Yes" if either team scores in the 1st inning, and "No" if the inning ends scoreless. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the game is actually completed; if it is canceled with no makeup game, it resolves 50-50. Settlement is based first on official final statistics, with credible reporting as a fallback only if official stats are not published within 24 hours.
First-inning scoring is a small slice of the game, but it depends on things that are hard to know in advance: the starting pitchers, the top of each lineup, defensive alignment, and whether a team comes out aggressive early. A market like this is popular because even a low-scoring game can still produce an early run, while strong pitchers can keep the opening frame clean. The uncertainty is not about who wins the game, but about whether one of the first six batters of the home team or the first three of the road team changes the scoreboard right away.
The biggest event-specific drivers are the announced starting pitchers, the batting order, and any late lineup changes before first pitch. A top-of-the-order hitter sitting out, a pitcher with a history of rough first innings, or a sudden weather delay can all affect how likely a scoreless opening frame looks. Once the game starts, the market is largely decided by whether the first inning features a quick hit, walk, error, sacrifice fly, or home run that brings a runner home.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 100% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market settles, readers should verify the official game status, whether the matchup is played as scheduled, and whether there is any postponement or makeup date. The cleanest source of truth is the official MLB final box score and inning-by-inning line score for Nationals vs. Diamondbacks, since the market resolves on first-inning runs specifically. If the game is canceled outright with no makeup, the rules say it resolves 50-50, so that distinction matters more than the final score of any separate future game.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $1K in 24h volume.
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Yes
100%
No
0%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for June 6 at 4:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Washington Nationals or Arizona Diamondbacks. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 100%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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