
-0.3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$153.4K
Liquidity
$148.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ostium FDV above $1B one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 11%, $16 in 24h volume, and $4.4K in liquidity.
Probability
11%
24h Volume
$16
Liquidity
$4.4K
This market asks whether Ostium’s token will reach a fully diluted valuation above $1 billion one day after it launches. The key question is not just whether a token appears, but whether it becomes publicly transferable and tradable, because that is the moment the market treats as the launch point.
The outcome turns on Ostium’s token FDV at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch, using FDV defined here as total token supply multiplied by token price. If the token has not launched by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. For this market, launch only counts once the token is actively, publicly transferable and tradable, and the resolution source is the most liquid price source available.
The uncertainty comes from two separate unknowns: whether Ostium will launch a token at all, and if it does, how the market will value it almost immediately afterward. A $1 billion FDV threshold is high enough that traders have to weigh token supply, initial price discovery, and how much demand there may be in the first day of trading.
Any clear announcement about a token launch date, claim process, exchange listing, or trading availability could change how people think this market should resolve. Details that imply a larger or smaller initial token supply, or a stronger or weaker debut price, matter directly because FDV is calculated from supply times price. If Ostium delays a launch past the deadline, that would point the market toward No under the stated rules.
The current market price implies roughly a 11% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

-0.3%
24h Vol
$153.4K
Liquidity
$148.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe most important thing to verify is the exact launch moment, since the market only counts once the token is publicly transferable and tradable. Readers should also check which price venue is the most liquid at the 4:00 PM ET reference time, because that source determines the FDV used for resolution. If there is any ambiguity about whether a token is “launched,” the market description says the public tradable status is the deciding factor, not an announcement alone.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ostium FDV above $1B one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 11%, $16 in 24h volume, and $4.4K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
10.7%
No
89.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 1, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ostium's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ostium doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 11%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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