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0%
-0.3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$153.4K
Liquidity
$148.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 19%, $14.6K in 24h volume, and $4.7K in liquidity.
Probability
19%
24h Volume
$14.6K
Liquidity
$4.7K
This market asks whether Ostium’s token will clear a $3 billion fully diluted valuation one day after it launches. The key issue is not just whether a token goes live, but whether it is publicly transferable and liquid enough for an external price source to value the entire supply. Because the decision turns on a specific timestamp and a specific pricing method, small differences in launch timing or early trading can matter a lot.
The question is whether Ostium, the project named in the title, will have a token whose FDV is above $3 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. The rules define launch as the moment the token is actively, publicly transferable and tradable, and the FDV calculation must use total token supply multiplied by token price. If Ostium never launches a token by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.
Markets like this are about uncertainty around both product timing and initial token valuation. A project can be widely discussed without a token actually being live, and even after launch the first day of trading can produce a valuation far above or far below what people expected. The disagreement here is really about whether Ostium will reach a token launch at all and, if it does, whether early market pricing will support a multi-billion-dollar FDV.
Any concrete sign that Ostium is preparing a token launch, such as an official announcement, a confirmed listing date, or details showing the token will be transferable soon, could shift expectations. On the other side, delays, vague launch language, or a launch structure that limits transferability would make a $3 billion FDV less likely under these rules. Because the market resolves using the most liquid price source available, early trading conditions, exchange access, and how the token is distributed can all affect where the FDV settles at the resolution time.
Related markets
-0.3%
24h Vol
$153.4K
Liquidity
$148.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 19% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify exactly when Ostium’s token becomes publicly transferable, because that is the launch date the market uses. It also matters which price source is most liquid around 4:00 PM ET the next day, since that source determines the token price used in the FDV calculation. The main ambiguity to watch for is whether any rollout, claim, or restricted listing counts as a real launch under the rule that the token must be actively, publicly tradable.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 19%, $14.6K in 24h volume, and $4.7K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
18.8%
No
81.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 1, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ostium's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ostium doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 19%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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