culture
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$153.4K
Liquidity
$148.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 22%, $4.4K in 24h volume, and $9.2K in liquidity.
Probability
22%
24h Volume
$4.4K
Liquidity
$9.2K
This market asks whether Ostium’s token, if it launches, will reach a fully diluted valuation above $500 million one day after launch. For readers following new crypto projects, the key issue is not just whether a token appears, but whether it can hold a valuation at that level once it is publicly tradable.
Ostium is the named project here, and the outcome depends on its token launch. The market resolves "Yes" only if the token is actively, publicly transferable and tradable, and its fully diluted valuation is greater than $500 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. If Ostium never launches a token by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves "No."
The uncertainty is about both timing and post-launch demand. A token can debut with attention but still trade below the implied valuation threshold a day later, especially once the market has time to price in circulating supply, unlock assumptions, and early selling pressure. That is why traders are debating not only whether Ostium launches, but whether its launch price and total supply support a FDV above the stated level.
The biggest price-moving event would be an official token launch announcement from Ostium, because the market cannot resolve "Yes" without a publicly transferable token. After launch, the token’s liquid market price becomes the critical input, since the rule says FDV is calculated as total supply multiplied by the token price using the most liquid source available. Any details about supply, distribution, or whether the token is immediately tradable can sharply affect expectations for where the FDV settles one day later.
The current market price implies roughly a 22% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.3%
24h Vol
$153.4K
Liquidity
$148.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketReaders should verify whether Ostium has actually launched a token and whether that token is publicly transferable and tradable, since the market will not count an illiquid or private setup as a launch. The exact check time matters: the valuation is measured at 4:00 PM ET on the day after launch, not at the moment of listing. Because the resolution source is the most liquid price source available, any ambiguity about which venue is most liquid or how total supply is defined is worth watching closely before the market settles.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 22%, $4.4K in 24h volume, and $9.2K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
21.5%
No
78.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 1, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ostium's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ostium doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 22%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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