finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
78%
-1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$50.6K
Liquidity
$94.2K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 13%, $237.9 in 24h volume, and $3.4K in liquidity.
Probability
13%
24h Volume
$237.9
Liquidity
$3.4K
This market asks whether Sam Altman will no longer be serving as OpenAI’s CEO at any point before the end of 2026. It is worth watching because Altman is closely tied to OpenAI’s public strategy and leadership, and any departure would be a major company-level event with immediate implications for the AI industry.
The question is simple: will Sam Altman be out as CEO of OpenAI before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? The market’s rules are broad: it resolves "Yes" if there is an announcement of resignation or firing before the end date, even if the actual departure happens later, and it also counts any period in which he is not serving as CEO for any length of time during the specified window.
This market reflects uncertainty around leadership continuity at one of the most closely watched AI companies. OpenAI has a high-profile structure, and Altman’s role has outsized importance for product direction, company governance, and public trust, so readers may care not just about who leads the company, but whether that leadership remains stable through 2026.
The biggest price-moving developments would be an official OpenAI statement about Altman stepping down, being removed, or leaving in any capacity that affects his CEO role. Credible reporting about board action, succession planning, or a confirmed change in leadership would also matter under the market’s rules, while vague speculation or unrelated OpenAI announcements would be less relevant unless they directly concern his status as CEO.
The current market price implies roughly a 13% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-1%
24h Vol
$50.6K
Liquidity
$94.2K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketReaders should pay close attention to official OpenAI communications and the exact wording of any resignation, firing, or transition announcement, since the market resolves on the CEO status itself rather than on broader company changes. The deadline is December 31, 2026, and the key ambiguity to watch is whether a reported change is merely temporary, delayed, or formalized in a way that clearly means Altman is no longer serving as CEO at any point before that cutoff.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 13%, $237.9 in 24h volume, and $3.4K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
13%
No
87%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 13%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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