
+1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$44.7K
Liquidity
$38.2K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $153.3 in 24h volume, and $8.3K in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$153.3
Liquidity
$8.3K
This market asks whether the S&P 500 index will trade down to 6,300 or lower at any point during June 2026, based on the low of a 1-minute candle. Because the S&P 500 is the main benchmark for large U.S. stocks, this kind of threshold market is closely tied to broad market sentiment, inflation and rate expectations, and any sharp swing in equities.
The event is specific: if any regular-trading-hours 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (^GSPC on Yahoo Finance) shows a final low price at or below 6,300 before the market closes on the last trading day of June 2026, the market resolves to Yes. If that never happens by the June 2026 close, it resolves to No. The title’s “LOW” matters because the trigger is not the closing level, but the lowest printed price within each minute.
There is uncertainty about whether the S&P 500 can briefly dip to this level during the month, even if it does not stay there by the close. Index thresholds like this are sensitive to earnings season, Federal Reserve expectations, inflation data, and sudden risk-off moves, so traders may disagree on how likely a sharp intramonth drawdown is. The live market is pricing that disagreement around a specific downside touch level rather than a year-end or month-end close.
Moves in the S&P 500 itself are the direct driver here, especially large one-day swings that push the index toward or through 6,300 intraday. Major economic releases, central bank statements, company earnings from heavyweight index members, and broad market selloffs can all matter because the resolution depends on a brief low, not a sustained close. If the index approaches the threshold late in the month, even a short-lived selloff during regular trading hours could decide the outcome.
The current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

+1%
24h Vol
$44.7K
Liquidity
$38.2K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketReaders should check the exact resolution rule: only regular trading hours count, only Yahoo Finance’s 1-minute data for ^GSPC is used, and the relevant trigger is the candle low, not the opening or closing price. The deadline is the close of trading on the final day of June 2026, which means moves after the market is officially closed do not count. The main ambiguity risk is whether a printed low on the source chart is captured in Yahoo’s 1-minute data, so that feed is the source of truth for this market.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $153.3 in 24h volume, and $8.3K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
4%
No
96.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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