
-13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?
24h Vol
$54K
Liquidity
$29.7K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 78%, $3K in 24h volume, and $7.7K in liquidity.
Probability
78%
24h Volume
$3K
Liquidity
$7.7K
This market asks whether SPY, the ETF that tracks the S&P 500, will finish June 8, 2026 above $730 on the official closing measure used here. Because it is tied to a specific end-of-day price rather than a vague news event, even a small move in the final session can decide the outcome.
The question is simple: will the S&P 500 ETF, trading under the ticker SPY, close above $730 on June 8, 2026? The market resolves using the Pyth "Close" price for the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, with exact published prices used and no rounding. If the date were somehow not a valid trading day, or if SPY did not trade normally, the rules switch to fallback procedures, so the relevant thing to verify is the official closing data for that session.
SPY is one of the most watched U.S. equity ETFs because it moves with the broader stock market, so a threshold like $730 gives traders and readers a clean yes-or-no test of where large-cap U.S. stocks finish by the close. The uncertainty is not about a company announcement or a policy decision, but about whether market levels at the end of the day are strong enough to clear a round price barrier. That makes the market sensitive to general risk appetite, late-session trading, and any event that moves U.S. equities during the day.
The biggest driver is SPY’s own intraday price action, especially in the final trading minutes before the close on June 8. Broad moves in U.S. stocks, changes in interest-rate expectations, or other market-wide catalysts can push SPY toward or away from the $730 level. Because the outcome depends on a narrow threshold, even a modest late rally or selloff can change the expected result quickly.
The current market price implies roughly a 78% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

-13%
24h Vol
$54K
Liquidity
$29.7K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketBefore the market resolves, check that June 8, 2026 is a normal trading day and that Pyth publishes a valid closing price for the final minute of regular hours. The key rule is the exact close above $730, with equality counted as "No," so the distinction between $729.99, $730.00, and $730.01 matters. If there is any data issue, the market description specifies fallback sources, so the official Pyth close and, if needed, the exchange’s published closing price are the source of truth.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 78%, $3K in 24h volume, and $7.7K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
77.5%
No
22.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 8, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 78%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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