
+4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$53.3K
Liquidity
$56.1K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 69%, $286.8 in 24h volume, and $2K in liquidity.
Probability
69%
24h Volume
$286.8
Liquidity
$2K
This market asks whether SPY, the popular ETF that tracks the S&P 500, will finish June 8, 2026 above $735. It is a straightforward end-of-day threshold question, so the only thing that matters is the official closing value used by the market rules, not where SPY trades intraday. Because the cutoff is a round, high price level for a broad-market ETF, even a modest move in the S&P 500 can decide the outcome.
The event is the June 8, 2026 regular-session close for SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF. The market resolves Yes if the published close price is strictly greater than $735 and No if it is equal to or below that level; if SPY does not trade during the regular session, the market resolves 50-50. The rules say the primary reference is Pyth’s 1-minute candle close for the final minute of regular trading hours, with fallback language if that data is missing or disrupted.
This market is about whether a large-cap U.S. equity benchmark can end the session above a specific price line. Traders watch SPY closely because it is one of the most widely used proxies for the S&P 500, so its closing level reflects broad market sentiment, index moves, and any late-session drift. The disagreement here is simply whether the ETF can clear a fixed threshold by the close, which can hinge on a small move over the last part of the trading day.
Anything that changes the S&P 500 itself can move SPY toward or away from $735, especially late-day shifts in mega-cap stocks that carry a lot of weight in the index. Big macro releases, Federal Reserve-related headlines, or a strong market rally or selloff during the session can matter because they feed directly into the ETF’s final print. The live market also shows active two-sided interest, with a relatively tight bid-ask spread and meaningful volume, so the last stretch of trading may be important.
Related markets

+4%
24h Vol
$53.3K
Liquidity
$56.1K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 69% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify the official rules for the source of truth: Pyth’s published close for the final regular-session minute on June 8, 2026, with fallback to the last valid regular-session Pyth price or the exchange close if needed. It is also important to confirm that June 8 is treated as a normal trading day under the applicable schedule, since a non-trading day would resolve 50-50. Because the threshold is exact, the market depends on the final published price, and a tie at $735 counts as No.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 69%, $286.8 in 24h volume, and $2K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
68.5%
No
31.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 8, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 69%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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