
+4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$52.6K
Liquidity
$56.5K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 44%, $3.4K in 24h volume, and $11K in liquidity.
Probability
44%
24h Volume
$3.4K
Liquidity
$11K
This market asks whether SPY — the ETF that tracks the S&P 500 — will finish the June 8, 2026 regular trading session above $740. Because SPY is a widely watched proxy for large U.S. stocks, a move through a specific round-number threshold like this often reflects broader expectations about the market’s level at the close.
The outcome turns on the published closing price for SPY on June 8, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if the Pyth Close value for the final minute of regular trading hours is higher than $740; if the close is exactly $740, the result is No. If that minute has no valid Pyth close, the market uses the last valid Pyth price during regular trading hours, and if Pyth has no valid price because of a technical disruption, the official exchange close is the backup source.
A single-day threshold on SPY is uncertain because stock indexes can move meaningfully by the close on any trading day, especially around macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve commentary, or broad market swings. Traders are essentially debating whether the S&P 500 ETF can hold above a relatively high level by the end of the session, which makes the final print more important than the intraday path.
The contract can move if SPY trades sharply during the day, if major U.S. market news changes expectations before the close, or if the ETF approaches $740 and then either holds above it or slips back below it. Because the resolution uses the closing print rather than the day’s high, late-session price action can matter more than earlier trading. Any market-wide event that affects large-cap stocks near the close can shift this market quickly.
The current market price implies roughly a 44% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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+4%
24h Vol
$52.6K
Liquidity
$56.5K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe key thing to verify is the exact June 8, 2026 regular-session close for SPY, since that is the number the market uses. Readers should also check whether June 8 is a valid trading day under Pyth’s schedule and whether any data outage or exchange fallback rule is triggered. If the market were to encounter a split, reverse split, or similar corporate action, the contract’s adjustment rules would also matter, so the final settlement logic should be read carefully against the published rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 44%, $3.4K in 24h volume, and $11K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
44%
No
56%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 8, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 44%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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