
+4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$51.5K
Liquidity
$55.8K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 19%, $142.4 in 24h volume, and $1K in liquidity.
Probability
19%
24h Volume
$142.4
Liquidity
$1K
This market asks whether SPY, the ETF that tracks the S&P 500, will finish the June 8, 2026 regular session above $745. The $745 level is the key line here: a close at that price or lower resolves No, while even a small finish above it resolves Yes.
The outcome is tied to the published closing price for SPY on June 8, 2026, using the rules in the market description. That makes this a very specific end-of-day threshold market rather than a broad question about the index direction over the month. If June 8 is not a valid trading day under the listed schedule, the market resolves 50-50, so readers should verify that the date remains a standard trading session.
SPY is one of the most widely watched U.S. equity benchmarks, so a threshold like $745 can sit near a meaningful line between ordinary gains and a stronger market run. Traders may disagree on whether the ETF can hold above that level into the close, especially because the result depends on one published end-of-day print rather than the intraday path. The uncertainty here is not about long-term fundamentals but about where SPY settles at the exact close on the named date.
The biggest drivers are any moves in broad U.S. stocks before the close on June 8, since SPY is designed to reflect the S&P 500. An abrupt change in the final hour of trading, driven by large index swings or a sharp move in heavyweight constituents, could be enough to push the closing print above or below $745. Because the rule uses the regular-session close, late-session volatility matters more than what SPY does earlier in the day.
The current market price implies roughly a 19% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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+4%
24h Vol
$51.5K
Liquidity
$55.8K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketReaders should check the exact resolution rules closely: the market uses Pythβs published close for the final minute of regular trading hours, with fallback rules if that value is missing or invalid. The decisive questions are whether June 8, 2026 is a valid trading day, what the final regular-session Pyth close is, and whether any data failure or corporate-action adjustment changes the effective price. Since the threshold is a precise dollar figure with no rounding, a close of exactly $745 still resolves No.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 19%, $142.4 in 24h volume, and $1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
18.5%
No
81.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 8, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 19%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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