
+4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$52.6K
Liquidity
$56.5K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $406.3 in 24h volume, and $6.4K in liquidity.
Probability
6%
24h Volume
$406.3
Liquidity
$6.4K
This market asks whether the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, ticker SPY, will finish the June 8, 2026 regular session above $750. Because SPY is one of the most widely watched ETFs tied to the U.S. stock market, this is really a question about whether the fund can close at an unusually high level on that specific trading day. The answer will be determined from the published closing price rules in the market description, not from an intraday high or low.
The event here is straightforward: on June 8, 2026, does SPY close above $750? SPY is the exchange-traded fund that closely tracks the S&P 500 index, so its close reflects broad large-cap U.S. equity performance rather than a single company’s price. The market resolves to Yes only if the closing price is higher than $750; if the close is exactly $750, it resolves No.
There is uncertainty because even a very liquid index ETF can move within a trading day, and a threshold like $750 leaves room for a close just above or just below the line. Traders may care because it condenses a broad market milestone into one simple yes-or-no outcome tied to a specific date. The disagreement in the market is not about whether SPY is generally strong, but whether the official close on that session clears the stated level under the exact settlement rules.
The main drivers are the same ones that move SPY itself: big shifts in the S&P 500 during the session, major economic data, Federal Reserve comments or decisions, and broad risk-on or risk-off trading. Because the threshold is a single closing number, late-day moves can matter more than the morning’s direction, especially if SPY spends the afternoon near $750. Any change in the broader index level, or a sharp move in heavyweight constituents of the S&P 500, can push the market closer to or farther from the cutoff.
Related markets

+4%
24h Vol
$52.6K
Liquidity
$56.5K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 6% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the regular-session close on June 8, 2026 and verify the exact settlement source used by the market: the Pyth Close value for the final 1-minute candle, with fallback rules if that value is unavailable. The description also says that if SPY does not trade at all during the regular session, the market resolves 50-50, and if June 8 is not treated as a trading day under the applicable schedule, it also resolves 50-50. The key ambiguity to check is whether the published close is above $750, exactly equal to it, or missing and replaced by the fallback pricing rule.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $406.3 in 24h volume, and $6.4K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
6.1%
No
93.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 8, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 6%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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