
+4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$51.5K
Liquidity
$55.8K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $1.1K in 24h volume, and $13.8K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$13.8K
This market asks whether SPY, the ETF that tracks the S&P 500, will finish the regular trading session on June 8, 2026 above $765. Because the outcome is tied to a single closing print, the main question is not just where the fund trades during the day, but where the market settles at the close. That makes the final minute of regular trading hours especially important here.
The event is the June 8, 2026 close for SPY, which is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF and a widely watched proxy for the U.S. large-cap stock market. The market resolves “Yes” only if the published close price is strictly higher than $765; an exact match resolves “No.” If June 8 is not a valid trading day, or if SPY does not trade during the regular session, the rules provide a separate fallback resolution.
This market centers on a clear threshold: whether SPY can close above a specific price on a specific date. The uncertainty comes from the fact that even when an ETF trades actively throughout the day, the official close can be pushed around by late-session moves, index-level sentiment, and end-of-day order flow. Readers may care because SPY is one of the most closely watched broad-market benchmarks, so a close above a set level is an easy-to-track yes/no event.
The price will mainly move with SPY’s regular-session trading on June 8, especially the final minute that the rules use for the closing value. Big swings in U.S. equities, sharp moves in major index constituents, or broad risk-on/risk-off sentiment can all affect whether the fund finishes above the threshold. Because the market uses Pyth’s exact Close value without rounding, even a small difference near the cutoff could change the outcome.
The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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+4%
24h Vol
$51.5K
Liquidity
$55.8K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketBefore the market resolves, check the exact date and whether June 8, 2026 is treated as a valid trading day under the applicable schedule. The rules say the source of truth is Pyth’s published Close value for the 1-minute candle covering the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, with fallback language if that value is missing or invalid. It is also worth confirming the split-adjustment clause in the full rules, since corporate actions can affect how the closing price is interpreted.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $1.1K in 24h volume, and $13.8K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.9%
No
99.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 8, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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