S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 8?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $73 in 24h volume, and $4.9K in liquidity.

Probability

24h Volume

$73

Liquidity

$4.9K

Live chart

Yes price history

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M MAX

Chart outcome

Switches which outcome price history is shown.

Yes price No price

Current

1.2%

Change

+0.2%

High

1.2%

Low

0.8%

Yes moved from 1% to 1.2% over the last hour, trading between 0.8% and 1.2%.

Yes price history from Polymarket CLOB.

13 points

Market context

This market asks whether SPY, the ETF that tracks the S&P 500, will finish the June 8, 2026 trading day above $775. It is a narrow threshold question, so even a small move in the index or in SPY’s intraday pricing can decide the outcome.

What this market is about

The resolution hinges on SPY’s official close on June 8, 2026, compared with the $775 level named in the title. If the closing price is higher than $775, the market resolves Yes; if it is equal to or below $775, it resolves No. The rules say the price used will be the Pyth close for the final regular-session minute, with fallback handling if that value is missing, and a non-trading day would resolve 50-50.

Why the market exists

This market is about whether a major U.S. equity benchmark, as packaged through SPY, can end the session above an unusually high round-number threshold. Because SPY reflects the S&P 500, traders and readers watch it as a broad snapshot of large-cap U.S. stock performance, and a level like $775 can feel like a clean line in the sand. The uncertainty is simply whether price action by the close lands above that cutoff or falls short.

What can move the price

Moves in the S&P 500 itself are the main driver here, since SPY is designed to track that index closely. A strong or weak trading session for large-cap stocks, shifts in rates, or broad market sentiment can all change whether the ETF finishes above the threshold. Because the decision is based on the official close, late-session trading matters more than earlier intraday highs or lows.

How to read the current probability

The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.

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