
+4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$52.6K
Liquidity
$56.5K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $464.8 in 24h volume, and $6.6K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$464.8
Liquidity
$6.6K
This market asks whether the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, ticker SPY, will finish the June 8, 2026 regular trading session above $780. SPY is one of the most widely watched ETFs because it tracks the S&P 500, so its daily close is a simple way to frame whether the broad U.S. equity market is sitting above a specific price threshold on that date.
The outcome is determined by SPY’s closing price on June 8, 2026, not by the index level itself. The market resolves to Yes if the Pyth Close value for the final minute of regular trading hours is strictly higher than $780, and No if it is equal to or below that level. If the listed date is not a trading day, or if SPY does not trade at all during the regular session, the rules call for a 50-50 resolution.
A market like this is really a test of whether SPY can hold a high round-number price by a specific date, which depends on the broader direction of large U.S. stocks. Readers may care because SPY is a proxy for the S&P 500 and is closely tied to investor sentiment around earnings, interest rates, inflation, and major macro releases that can push the ETF up or down over time. The disagreement here is not about the ETF’s identity, but about whether the price can clear an unusually high threshold by the June 8 close.
The most direct drivers are moves in the S&P 500 itself during the days leading into June 8, especially strong or weak trading in mega-cap stocks that dominate the index. Because the resolution uses a single-session closing print, late-day volatility, earnings reports from large index constituents, or a surprise macro data release can matter more than earlier intraday moves. Any market-wide shift in expectations for growth, inflation, or interest-rate policy could also change whether SPY finishes above the strike level.
Related markets

+4%
24h Vol
$52.6K
Liquidity
$56.5K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key details to verify are the exact settlement source and the date: this market uses the Pyth Close for the final minute of regular trading hours on June 8, 2026. If that Pyth value is missing, the rules fall back to the last valid Pyth price during regular hours, and if Pyth data fails entirely, the official exchange closing price is used instead. Readers should also remember that the rule is strict—SPY must close above $780, not merely at $780—and that any non-trading-day treatment is spelled out in the market terms.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $464.8 in 24h volume, and $6.6K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.4%
No
99.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 8, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

--
24h Vol
$38.3K
Liquidity
$236.1K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$42.1K
Liquidity
$54.2K
Spread
1%
6/30/2026
View market
-0.4%
24h Vol
$55.6K
Liquidity
$53K
Spread
0%
Live
View market
+0.3%
24h Vol
$35.1K
Liquidity
$45.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$18.8K
Liquidity
$73.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market