Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for O/U 0.5 Rounds. The market currently shows a live probability of 52%, and $389.9 in liquidity.
Probability
52%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$389.9
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
51.5%
Change
+1.5%
High
73%
Low
49.5%
Over moved from 50% to 51.5% over the full available history, trading between 49.5% and 73%.
Over price history from Polymarket CLOB.
56 points
This market is about whether Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria makes it past the very early part of Round 1 at UFC Freedom 250 on June 14, 2026. Because the line is 0.5 rounds, the entire market turns on whether the fight survives beyond the 2:30 mark of the opening round, which makes first-round pace and finishing power especially important.
The event in question is a UFC fight between Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria, listed for UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje. For an Over 0.5 Rounds result, the bout must continue past 2:30 of Round 1; for Under 0.5 Rounds, it must end before that point. If the fight ends exactly at 2:30 in Round 1, the market settles 50-50, and the same 50-50 outcome applies if the bout is not scored, is postponed beyond June 28, 2026, or is canceled.
A 0.5-round line is one of the shortest and most volatile fight questions because it asks whether the opening exchanges produce an immediate finish. Gaethje and Topuria are both the kind of fighters who can create early danger, so the market is really pricing disagreement about whether this matchup opens cautiously or explodes quickly. The appeal here is not the full fight result, but the possibility that the outcome is decided almost as soon as the bell rings.
Anything that changes expectations for an early finish can move this market: official bout confirmation, weigh-in results, late injury news, or changes in the scheduled matchup. In the cage, these lines are most sensitive to pre-fight assessments of striking power, durability, and how aggressively each fighter is expected to start. If either fighter is reported to be unavailable, or if the UFC shifts the bout date past the settlement window, that can matter more than normal fight-week chatter because of the market’s 50-50 fallback rules.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 52% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is official UFC information, since the market resolves from UFC’s official result and event status. Readers should verify that the fight is still scheduled for June 14, 2026, that it is actually contested and scored, and whether the bout reaches past 2:30 of Round 1 or ends before that cutoff. Also check the settlement deadline: if the fight is postponed beyond June 28, 2026, or canceled, this market does not pay out as Over or Under and instead resolves 50-50.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for O/U 0.5 Rounds. The market currently shows a live probability of 52%, and $389.9 in liquidity.
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Over
51.5%
Under
48.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 15, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Each market will resolve to “Over” if the fight between Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to “Under” if the fight between Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026, does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: “Over 0.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 1. “Under 0.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 1. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 1 for a 0.5 line), it will resolve “50-50.” If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond June 28, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve “50-50.” The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 52%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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