Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for O/U 2.5 Rounds. The market currently shows a live probability of 24%, $10.3 in 24h volume, and $1.3K in liquidity.
Probability
24%
24h Volume
$10.3
Liquidity
$1.3K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
76%
Change
+26%
High
76%
Low
49%
Under moved from 50% to 76% over the full available history, trading between 49% and 76%.
Under price history from Polymarket CLOB.
57 points
This market asks how long the UFC bout between Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria will last at UFC Freedom 250 on June 14, 2026. It is centered on the fight clock, not on who wins, so the key question is whether the bout reaches past the 2.5-round mark or ends earlier.
The listed line is 2.5 rounds for Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria, which means the market resolves by whether the fight goes beyond the 2:30 mark of Round 3. “Over” wins if the bout is still going after that point, while “Under” wins if the fight ends before then. If it ends exactly at 2:30 in Round 3, the market is set to resolve 50-50, and if the bout is not scored, is postponed beyond June 28, 2026, or is canceled, all options resolve 50-50.
Gaethje and Topuria are both the kind of fighters who can make a time-total market swing quickly, because a bout can flip from a measured tactical fight to a sudden finish in one exchange. This is why the market is really pricing disagreement about pace, durability, and whether the matchup is more likely to produce a mid-fight stoppage or make it into the later rounds. The displayed prices currently lean toward Under, which suggests the market is giving more weight to an earlier end than to a long fight.
Any official UFC update that changes the scheduled matchup, the bout order, or the status of the fight can move this market, especially if one fighter is pulled, the fight is rebooked, or the event date shifts. Weigh-ins, faceoffs, and credible fight-week news about injuries, weight issues, or replacement concerns can also affect expectations because those details change how likely a short fight or late stoppage looks. Once the fight starts, the round-by-round action matters most: early pressure, knockdowns, repeated clinch control, or a cautious opening can all push the market one way or the other.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 24% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The resolution source is official UFC information, so readers should check the event’s official status and the final result rather than unofficial scorecards or media summaries. The important cutoff is June 28, 2026: if the fight has not been scored by then, or if it is canceled or postponed past that date, the market resolves 50-50. For settlement, the exact stop time matters, especially the 2:30 mark of Round 3, so a bout ending right on that threshold should be treated carefully against the market rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for O/U 2.5 Rounds. The market currently shows a live probability of 24%, $10.3 in 24h volume, and $1.3K in liquidity.
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Over
24%
Under
76%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 15, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Each market will resolve to “Over” if the fight between Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to “Under” if the fight between Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026, does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: “Over 2.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 3. “Under 2.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 3. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 3 for a 2.5 line), it will resolve “50-50.” If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond June 28, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve “50-50.” The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 24%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
--
Liquidity
--
Spread
1%
7/6/2026
View market
