Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the fight be won by submission?. The market currently shows a live probability of 30%, $3.3 in 24h volume, and $301 in liquidity.
Probability
30%
24h Volume
$3.3
Liquidity
$301
This market asks whether Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250 will end with a submission finish. In plain terms, it is watching for any tapout, verbal submission, or referee stoppage caused by a submission hold before the bout is decided any other way. Because both fighters are high-profile and the result depends on the exact finish type, this is a narrower question than simply who wins the fight.
The event is the UFC fight between Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria scheduled for June 14, 2026, with settlement tied to the official UFC result. The market resolves "Yes" only if the fight ends by submission, which includes a tapout, a verbal submission, or a technical submission stoppage by the referee. If the bout ends by knockout, decision, draw, or disqualification, it resolves "No"; if it is a no contest, is not scored, is canceled, or is postponed beyond June 28, 2026, it resolves to "50-50."
This market is about a specific finish condition, and that matters because MMA outcomes can be decided in several different ways even when the same fighters are involved. Gaethje and Topuria are both well-known UFC names, so readers may be trying to separate the chance of a submission from the more common alternatives like strikes or a judges’ decision. The uncertainty is not only who wins, but whether the fight reaches a grappling finish that meets the market’s definition.
Anything that changes expectations for the way these two match up can move this market, especially news about injuries, weight-cut issues, or late changes in training camp that affect grappling or defensive wrestling. Official fight-week developments such as the bout being rebooked, delayed, switched to a different card, or altered in status would also matter because the settlement rules depend on the fight actually taking place by the deadline. Once the fight is underway, the live action itself is the main driver: dominant ground positions, submission attempts, and whether the referee intervenes on a hold are the key signals for this exact market.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 30% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this resolves, readers should check that the UFC officially recognizes the bout and that it takes place before the June 28, 2026 cutoff. The most important source of truth is the UFC result, since the market explicitly says official UFC information controls settlement. One detail to watch closely is the finish type: a stoppage must be recorded as a submission, including a technical submission, and not simply as a knockout, doctor stoppage, or other outcome that would count as "No."
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the fight be won by submission?. The market currently shows a live probability of 30%, $3.3 in 24h volume, and $301 in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
30%
No
70%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 15, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 30%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
--
Liquidity
--
Spread
0%
7/6/2026
View market--
24h Vol
--
Liquidity
--
Spread
0%
7/6/2026
View market
