Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for O/U 0.5 Rounds. The market currently shows a live probability of 49%, $305.7 in 24h volume, and $7.9 in liquidity.
Probability
49%
24h Volume
$305.7
Liquidity
$7.9
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
49%
Change
-1%
High
77%
Low
49%
Over moved from 50% to 49% over the full available history, trading between 49% and 77%.
Over price history from Polymarket CLOB.
26 points
This market is about whether Matt Schnell and Alessandro Costa make it past the first half of round one at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim on June 6, 2026. Because the line is set at 0.5 rounds, even a very early finish changes the result, which makes this a highly timing-sensitive fight market.
The question is simple: will the bout last beyond the 2:30 mark of Round 1, or will it end before then? If the fight goes past that point, the market resolves Over; if it ends earlier, it resolves Under. If it stops exactly at the threshold, the market rules say it resolves 50-50, and if the bout is not scored, postponed past June 20, 2026, or canceled, all options also resolve 50-50. The official UFC result is the source of truth for settlement.
Schnell and Costa are both the kind of UFC matchmakers use for action-heavy fights, and a 0.5-round line asks whether the matchup is likely to produce an immediate finish or survive the opening scramble. That uncertainty matters because early takedowns, striking exchanges, or a quick submission attempt can decide the market almost instantly. The market is pricing a very narrow disagreement about whether the fight starts fast enough to end before the first round reaches the midpoint.
The biggest movers are fight-day status changes and anything that suggests one fighter may be unavailable, compromised, or replaced before the card starts. Official UFC weigh-in results, late injury notes, bout scrambles, or a change to the scheduled lineup can all matter because this market only settles on the listed Schnell-Costa fight. Once the bout begins, the first significant moments—an early knockdown, a submission threat, or a cautious opening minute—are the kinds of live developments that can quickly shift expectations.
The current market price implies roughly a 49% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Before resolution, readers should verify that the fight is still scheduled for UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim and that the bout actually takes place before the June 20, 2026 cutoff. The key rule is the exact threshold: Over 0.5 rounds means the fight must continue past 2:30 of Round 1, while Under 0.5 rounds means it must end before then. Because the rules also specify a 50-50 outcome for an exact threshold finish or for a non-scored/postponed/canceled bout, the important detail is not just whether the fight ends, but when and under what official UFC result it ends.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for O/U 0.5 Rounds. The market currently shows a live probability of 49%, $305.7 in 24h volume, and $7.9 in liquidity.
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Over
49%
Under
51%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Matt Schnell and Alessandro Costa at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim, scheduled for June 6, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 0.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 1. "Under 0.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 1. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond June 20, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 49%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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