US x China Military clash before 2027?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for US x China Military clash before 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 8%, $4.6K in 24h volume, and $28.3K in liquidity.

Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.

This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.