Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Adele perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, and $104.4 in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$104.4
This market asks whether Adele will make a live, in-person appearance at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show. It is tied to a specific FIFA event at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on July 19, 2026, so the answer depends on who actually appears on the day, not on general celebrity speculation.
The question is narrowly defined: will Adele perform during the halftime show at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final on July 19, 2026. FIFA has confirmed that the final will feature the first World Cup halftime show, and the market rules say any live appearance during that show counts, including a guest spot, as long as it is in person. If the performance is cancelled, postponed, or pushed beyond September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.
There is real uncertainty because FIFA has confirmed the halftime show itself, but not necessarily the performer lineup in a way that settles this question on its own. Adele is a globally recognized artist, so readers are watching to see whether her name becomes attached to the event or whether another performer is chosen. The market is pricing the gap between a confirmed halftime-show format and the still-uncertain identity of the performer.
Official FIFA announcements, the halftime-show production details from Global Citizen, or credible reporting that names Adele as a performer would push this market toward Yes. On the other hand, confirmation of a different act, a lineup that excludes Adele, or signs that the halftime show format changes could move it toward No. Because the rules require a live, in-person performance, anything that suggests a cameo is unlikely, cancelled, or substituted by a recorded segment would also matter.
The current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
The key source of truth is the footage of the halftime show itself, with credible reporting used as backup if there is any dispute. Readers should check whether Adele is explicitly listed in official event material, whether she appears onstage during halftime, and whether the show happens on the stated date and before the September 30, 2026 cutoff. Ambiguity would most likely come from guest appearances, pre-recorded content, or any delay to the final that changes the settlement window.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Adele perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, and $104.4 in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
3.2%
No
96.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 19, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
FIFA has confirmed that the first World Cup halftime show will take place at the FIFA World Cup Final on July 19, 2026 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The show will be produced by Global Citizen. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual performs live and in person at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show on July 19, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying performance includes any live appearance during the halftime show, including guest appearances, even if the artist does not perform a full set. If this event is cancelled, postponed, or rescheduled beyond September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be footage of the FIFA World Cup Final halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
--
Liquidity
--
Spread
0%
7/6/2026
View market--
24h Vol
--
Liquidity
--
Spread
0%
7/6/2026
View market
