
+7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Alibaba have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $85.8 in 24h volume, and $1.8K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$85.8
Liquidity
$1.8K
This market asks whether Alibaba will be the company behind the second-highest-ranked coding model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the June 30, 2026 check. Alibaba matters here because the question is not just whether it has a strong coding model, but whether it can finish specifically in the runner-up position against rivals from other major AI labs. It is a narrow ranking race, so even small changes in model performance or leaderboard ordering can change the outcome.
The market resolves using the "Text Arena | Coding" leaderboard on lmarena.ai, with style control off, checked at 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The result is based on the company that owns the model sitting in second place under the leaderboard’s "Rank" column at that exact time. If models are tied, the market uses Arena score, including underlying unrounded values, and then company-name alphabetical order as the final tiebreaker.
There is real uncertainty because coding-model rankings on Chatbot Arena can shift as companies release new versions, tune existing models, or see rivals overtake them. Alibaba has been active in foundation models, but the market is really pricing whether its coding offering can stay ahead of the rest of the field long enough to hold second place by the resolution check. Readers care because these rankings are often treated as a public signal of competitive strength in AI coding performance.
The biggest drivers are new model releases, leaderboard updates, and any jump or drop in the coding ranking for Alibaba’s model relative to competitors like Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, or others on the table. A fresh Alibaba coding model that lands near the top could improve this market, while a rival release that pushes Alibaba down the chart would hurt it. Because the market resolves from a single leaderboard snapshot, late changes close to the June 30 check time matter more than older results.
Related markets

+7%
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the deadline, readers should watch the exact Chatbot Arena "Text Arena | Coding" page used in the rules, not a summary article or a different benchmark. The source of truth is the rank at 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026, with style control off, and the market also spells out how ties are broken, so the precise company attached to the second-ranked model is what matters. If the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, the market stays open until it returns, so the final result depends on the first valid check after service is restored.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Alibaba have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $85.8 in 24h volume, and $1.8K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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