
+7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$184.8K
Liquidity
$87.3K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Amazon have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $84 in 24h volume, and $1.2K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$84
Liquidity
$1.2K
This market asks whether Amazon will be the company behind the second-ranked coding model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of June 2026. It is not about Amazon’s overall AI business, but about whether an Amazon-linked model sits in the number-two spot on a specific coding-focused leaderboard at the resolution time.
The outcome is determined by the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard’s "Text Arena | Coding" table with style control off, checked on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The market resolves to the company that owns the model in second place under the leaderboard’s ranking rules, using the listed rank first, then Arena score as a tiebreaker, and then company name order if needed. For this market, the question is simply whether that company will be Amazon.
Amazon is a major cloud and AI player, but its standing in coding-model benchmarks can change as new models are added, updated, or re-ranked. Readers may care because the market is really testing whether Amazon’s model ecosystem can stay near the top on a widely watched public leaderboard for coding performance, where small shifts can move companies up or down. The uncertainty comes from the fact that the leaderboard is dynamic and the second place slot could be held by a different company by the check time.
Price can move if a new coding model launch, leaderboard update, or model retraining changes the top of the ranking and pushes an Amazon-owned model into or out of second place. Changes to the Arena leaderboard methodology, the appearance of a tied score, or a different model overtaking Amazon’s entry would all matter directly because the market resolves from that exact ranking table. Any new Amazon, Anthropic, or other company model that affects the coding leaderboard order near the deadline could be especially important.
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+7%
24h Vol
$184.8K
Liquidity
$87.3K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, readers should check the exact leaderboard page named in the rules: the Coding tab on Chatbot Arena with style control off, at the stated check time of June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The key thing to verify is which company owns the model shown in second place, because the market uses company ownership rather than the model name itself. The description also says the source controls resolution if available, but the fallback language is cut off in the provided text, so it is worth confirming the full rule set for any edge-case or outage handling.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Amazon have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $84 in 24h volume, and $1.2K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.6%
No
99.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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