economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$42.6K
Liquidity
$188.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $24.3K in 24h volume, and $23.8K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$24.3K
Liquidity
$23.8K
This market asks whether Anthropic, the artificial intelligence company behind Claude, will have its shares listed and trading on a public stock exchange by July 31, 2026. That makes it a straightforward corporate-timing question: not whether Anthropic becomes a public company someday, but whether it does so before this specific deadline.
For a "Yes" resolution, Anthropic shares must be listed on a public securities exchange and actively trading by 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026. The market uses official filings and announcements as the main source of truth, including SEC documents such as a Form S-1 or Form 8-A, exchange listing confirmations, and Anthropic press releases. If Anthropic is acquired by an already public company before then, the market resolves "No" immediately under the rules.
Anthropic is one of the best-known private AI companies, so its path to public markets is closely watched. The uncertainty is not just about whether an IPO could happen, but about timing, since companies can spend months preparing filings, coordinating with exchanges, and choosing when to list. Readers are effectively pricing disagreement over whether Anthropic will complete that process before the deadline or remain private longer.
The price can move when Anthropic files or amends IPO paperwork, especially an S-1, or when there are official signs of exchange readiness such as a Form 8-A or listing announcement. A company statement about going public, delaying a deal, or pursuing an acquisition would also matter, because the rules treat a public-company acquisition as an immediate "No." General market conditions can matter too, but only if they show up in concrete company or exchange actions that make a listing before the deadline more or less likely.
The current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$42.6K
Liquidity
$188.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe key things to verify are the exact deadline, the listing venue, and whether Anthropic’s shares actually begin trading by 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026. The strongest evidence will come from official SEC filings, Anthropic announcements, and exchange notices; if those are absent, credible consensus reporting may still inform the outcome, but the rules prioritize official sources. Watch for ambiguity around a direct listing versus a traditional IPO, and remember that an announced deal is not the same as a completed public listing unless trading has started by the cutoff.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $24.3K in 24h volume, and $23.8K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
2.9%
No
97.2%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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