economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$42.5K
Liquidity
$194.2K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?. The market currently shows a live probability of 74%, $3.1K in 24h volume, and $25.8K in liquidity.
Probability
74%
24h Volume
$3.1K
Liquidity
$25.8K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
73.5%
Change
+49%
High
86.5%
Low
24.5%
Anthropic moved from 24.5% to 73.5% over the last week, trading between 24.5% and 86.5%.
Anthropic price history from Polymarket CLOB.
85 points
This market asks which of two closely watched artificial-intelligence companies will reach the public markets first: Anthropic or OpenAI. Both names matter because they are among the most prominent private AI firms, and an IPO would be a major milestone for valuation, ownership, and public disclosure. The deadline is December 31, 2027, and the result depends on which company completes its first public stock sale first, or whether neither does.
The question is straightforward: if Anthropic completes an initial public offering before OpenAI does, the market resolves to Anthropic; if OpenAI goes public first, it resolves to OpenAI. The description defines an IPO as the first sale of stock to the public on a recognized stock exchange, and it says resolution will rely on official company announcements and credible news sources. If neither company goes public by the deadline, if they do so on the same calendar date, or if both become unable to IPO because they are absorbed by an already public company, the market resolves 50-50.
Anthropic and OpenAI are both private companies with big strategic importance, but an IPO requires the company to choose a timing window, satisfy market conditions, and complete the offering process. That creates a real sequencing question: even if both eventually go public, the order is uncertain and can change with funding needs, regulation, corporate structure, or market sentiment. Readers care because the first IPO would likely shape expectations about valuation, governance, and the broader public listing path for frontier AI firms.
The price can move when either company makes an official move toward going public, such as filing registration paperwork, naming underwriters, or publicly discussing IPO timing. It can also shift if credible reporting suggests one company is preparing earlier than the other, or if a financing round, acquisition rumor, merger, or restructuring changes whether an IPO still looks feasible. Because the market resolves on which company completes the first IPO by the deadline, any development that improves one firm’s odds of being ready sooner can matter.
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24h Vol
$42.5K
Liquidity
$194.2K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 74% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market resolves, the key things to verify are the exact timing and status of each company’s first public stock sale, not just general speculation about going public. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting plus official company announcements, so readers should watch for clear confirmation rather than rumor alone. The important edge cases are spelled out in the rules: no IPO by December 31, 2027; both IPOs on the same calendar date; or corporate events that leave neither company able to complete an IPO would all lead to a 50-50 result.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?. The market currently shows a live probability of 74%, $3.1K in 24h volume, and $25.8K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Anthropic
73.5%
OpenAI
26.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 74%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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