
-11%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
24h Vol
$85.4K
Liquidity
$21.3K
Spread
3%
7/1/2026
Technology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, $1.4K in 24h volume, and $2.5K in liquidity.
Probability
28%
24h Volume
$1.4K
Liquidity
$2.5K
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, $1.4K in 24h volume, and $2.5K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
27.5%
No
72.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Related markets

-11%
24h Vol
$85.4K
Liquidity
$21.3K
Spread
3%
7/1/2026
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 28%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

--
24h Vol
$21.5K
Liquidity
$108K
Spread
0%
7/31/2026
View market
-4%
24h Vol
$51.4K
Liquidity
$15.5K
Spread
4%
7/31/2026
View market
+0.2%
24h Vol
$31.2K
Liquidity
$109.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$5.1M
Liquidity
$101K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
+1.4%
24h Vol
$20.4K
Liquidity
$38.5K
Spread
0%
7/31/2026
View market