Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $24.9K in 24h volume, and $168K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$24.9K
Liquidity
$168K
This market asks whether Aston Martin will finish the 2026 Formula 1 season as the Constructors’ Champion. In F1, the Constructors’ title goes to the team that scores the most points across both of its cars over the full season, so this is about season-long performance rather than a single race result.
The question is whether Aston Martin will be the official winner of the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship when the final scheduled race is complete. The market resolves from F1’s official results, and if Aston Martin cannot mathematically still win at some point before the season ends, the market can resolve to “No” early. If the season is never completed or is permanently canceled, the fallback resolution is “Other.”
Aston Martin is a real title contender only if its car, drivers, strategy, reliability, and development pace are good enough across an entire season, which is why the outcome stays uncertain for so long. The market is pricing a straightforward sports question: can Aston Martin outperform every other team over a long championship calendar, or will one of the established frontrunners finish ahead on points?
Price can move with anything that changes Aston Martin’s expected points haul over the 2026 season, especially driver lineups, major upgrades, reliability issues, penalties, and head-to-head performance against top teams. Strong qualifying and race weekends, a string of podiums, or a rival team’s setbacks would make a title run look more plausible; the opposite would push the market away from Yes. Because the market resolves on the Constructors’ standings, both cars matter, not just one standout driver.
The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
The key thing to watch is the official F1 Constructors’ standings and the points gap between Aston Martin and the teams above it, since the market can end early if Aston Martin is mathematically eliminated. Readers should also check the final race schedule and any tie-break rules, because the market follows F1’s own championship procedure if teams finish level on points. The resolution source is F1 itself, so the authoritative result is the official championship classification after the final scheduled race, or earlier if elimination is clear.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $24.9K in 24h volume, and $168K in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 6, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.” If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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