Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $282.3K in 24h volume, and $12.4M in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$282.3K
Liquidity
$12.4M
This market asks whether Australia will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the premier men’s international tournament run by FIFA. Because the event only ends with one champion and Australia would need to survive multiple knockout rounds against the strongest national teams in the world, this is a high-uncertainty question with a very specific settlement rule.
The page resolves to “Yes” only if Australia is the official winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The tournament is scheduled to conclude before the market’s end date of July 20, 2026, and the market description says it can also resolve early to “No” if Australia is eliminated in a way that makes victory impossible under FIFA rules. If the World Cup is canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM, the market resolves to “Other” instead of Yes or No.
Australia is a recognizable national team, but winning the World Cup requires a run of results against elite competition, which makes the outcome highly uncertain well before the tournament begins. Readers may care because the market is really asking whether Australia can turn a difficult group-stage and knockout path into a title run, something that depends on squad strength, injuries, draw difficulty, and match-by-match survival. The pricing reflects disagreement about whether Australia has any realistic path to becoming world champion, not just whether it will qualify or play well.
The biggest price moves will come from Australia’s performance in World Cup qualifying, the official tournament draw, and the final squad decisions leading into kickoff. Once the tournament starts, any group-stage results, knockout-round advancement, injuries to key players, suspensions, or a tough matchup in the bracket could quickly change the outlook because one loss can end the title path. Confirmation from FIFA that Australia is still alive in the competition, or official elimination, is the clearest event-specific trigger for movement.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is FIFA’s official tournament results and bracket status, since the market resolves based on the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Readers should pay attention to whether Australia has been mathematically or formally eliminated under FIFA rules, because the market can resolve to “No” before the final if winning becomes impossible. The cancellation fallback is also important: if the tournament is not completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM, the market resolves to “Other,” so the completion status of the event matters as much as the final champion.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $282.3K in 24h volume, and $12.4M in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 20, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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