economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
--
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$42.2K
Liquidity
$194K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.2B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 89%, $103.6 in 24h volume, and $6.3K in liquidity.
Probability
89%
24h Volume
$103.6
Liquidity
$6.3K
This market asks whether Bank of America’s second-quarter provision for credit losses will come in above $1.2 billion in the company’s official earnings materials. It is worth watching because this line item can signal how management is thinking about loan quality, consumer stress, and the broader credit environment going into the quarter.
The event is tied to Bank of America (ticker BAC), one of the largest U.S. banks, and specifically to its Q2 provision for credit losses. That figure is the amount the bank sets aside for expected future loan losses, and this market resolves based on the exact number reported in the company’s official quarterly earnings materials, with the earnings release, investor presentation, or regulatory filing serving as the main source. The deadline in the market rules is August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET if the company has not released the relevant quarterly materials by then.
There is room for uncertainty because the provision can move meaningfully from quarter to quarter depending on management’s outlook, charge-offs, loan growth, and changes in the macro backdrop. Readers may care because a higher-than-expected provision can suggest the bank is becoming more cautious about potential borrower stress, while a lower figure can imply a calmer credit picture. The market is effectively pricing whether Bank of America will clear the specific $1.2 billion threshold in its reported second-quarter numbers.
The price can move if Bank of America’s earnings materials, guidance, or filing language point to a larger or smaller reserve build than traders expected. Any official mention of loan-loss trends, changes in consumer or commercial credit performance, or a range that brackets the threshold can matter, because the rules say a midpoint will be used if a range is reported. Since the resolution depends on the company’s official materials, updates after release should not change the outcome, but they can still influence how readers interpret the number before the filing is final.
Related markets
--
24h Vol
$42.2K
Liquidity
$194K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 89% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is the exact wording and numeric figure in Bank of America’s official Q2 earnings release, investor presentation, or filing, since the market resolves off the most precise version reported there. If the number is omitted entirely from those materials, the rules say the market resolves to No, so the absence of the metric matters as much as the headline earnings. Readers should also note the August 31, 2026 cutoff and watch for any range disclosure, because the midpoint rule could determine the final resolution if the company does not give a single point estimate.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.2B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 89%, $103.6 in 24h volume, and $6.3K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
89%
No
11%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 14, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bank of America's provision for credit losses for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Bank of America's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 89%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
-3%
24h Vol
$37.2K
Liquidity
$29K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$55.8K
Liquidity
$62.3K
Spread
1%
6/30/2026
View market
+0.5%
24h Vol
$55.6K
Liquidity
$57K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-1%
24h Vol
$62.7K
Liquidity
$76K
Spread
1%
12/31/2026
View market-2%
24h Vol
$15.5K
Liquidity
$9.8K
Spread
1%
Live
View market