economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$42.5K
Liquidity
$189.2K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.3B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 53%, $3.7K in 24h volume, and $1K in liquidity.
Probability
53%
24h Volume
$3.7K
Liquidity
$1K
This market is about whether Bank of America will report second-quarter 2026 provision for credit losses above $1.3 billion in its official earnings materials. That line item matters because it shows how much the bank is setting aside for loans it expects may not be repaid, which can reflect the health of its lending book and broader credit conditions.
The question is tied to Bank of America, ticker BAC, and the company’s upcoming Q2 earnings release. Resolution depends on the provision for credit losses figure reported in the bank’s official earnings materials for that quarter, using the most numerically precise version available; if the amount is given as a range, the midpoint is used. If the figure is not reported in those materials, or if the company does not release the relevant quarterly earnings materials by August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.
Credit-loss provisions can move from quarter to quarter as banks react to changes in consumer delinquencies, commercial loan stress, charge-offs, and the overall economic outlook. Investors pay attention to this number because a higher-than-expected reserve build can signal caution about future losses, while a lower figure can suggest relatively stable credit quality. The market is pricing disagreement about whether Bank of America’s second-quarter setting will clear the $1.3 billion threshold.
The biggest price moves are likely to come from the bank’s earnings press release, investor presentation, or regulatory filing if they give the provision figure directly. If management discusses loan growth, reserve build, charge-offs, or sector-specific stress in the earnings materials or webcast, those details can shape how traders interpret whether the number will land above or below the threshold. Any official revision, restatement, or clarifying disclosure in the company’s materials would matter only if it appears in the source documents used for resolution.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$42.5K
Liquidity
$189.2K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 53% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is Bank of America’s own official earnings materials for the second quarter: press release, investor presentation, and regulatory filing, with webcast transcripts or recordings only used if the metric is not otherwise reported. Readers should check that the figure is for Q2 2026, that it is the provision for credit losses and not a different reserve or expense line, and that any range is handled using the midpoint per the market rules. The market also includes a hard fallback date of August 31, 2026, so if no qualifying quarterly materials are released by then, the outcome is set to No.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.3B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 53%, $3.7K in 24h volume, and $1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 14, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bank of America's provision for credit losses for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Bank of America's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 53%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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