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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$42.2K
Liquidity
$194K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.5B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 22%, $386.3 in 24h volume, and $431.6 in liquidity.
Probability
22%
24h Volume
$386.3
Liquidity
$431.6
This market asks whether Bank of America will report second-quarter provision for credit losses above $1.5 billion in its official earnings materials. It is worth watching because this line item gives a direct read on how management is preparing for possible loan losses, which can shift meaningfully from quarter to quarter.
The outcome depends on Bank of America’s Q2 earnings materials for BAC, including its press release, investor presentation, and any qualifying regulatory filing. If the reported provision for credit losses is above $1.5 billion, the market resolves to Yes; if it is at or below that level, or if the metric is not reported in the official materials, it resolves to No. The deadline on the page is July 14, 2026, but the rules also say that if the company has not released the relevant quarterly materials by August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.
Provision for credit losses is one of the clearest signals of how a large bank sees borrower health, charge-off risk, and the possibility of future stress in its lending book. For a bank the size of Bank of America, even a small change in this figure can reflect a different view on consumer credit, commercial loans, or the broader economic backdrop. The market is essentially pricing disagreement over whether BAC will clear the $1.5 billion threshold in its next Q2 report.
The biggest price moves will come from the actual earnings release, especially the line item for provision for credit losses if it is stated directly in the quarter’s official materials. If the company reports a range, the midpoint is used, so a range straddling $1.5 billion could matter a lot. Any investor presentation, filing, or webcast material that clearly states the number can also settle the question, while an omission would push the result to No under the rules.
Related markets

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24h Vol
$42.2K
Liquidity
$194K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 22% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, check Bank of America’s official Q2 earnings release and related investor materials for the exact wording of the provision for credit losses. The resolution depends on the most numerically precise version reported in those company materials, and later revisions do not count. If the metric is missing entirely, or if the company does not publish the quarter’s earnings materials by the stated August 31, 2026 cutoff, the market resolves to No.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.5B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 22%, $386.3 in 24h volume, and $431.6 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
22%
No
78%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 14, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bank of America's provision for credit losses for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Bank of America's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 22%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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