economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$42.2K
Liquidity
$193.2K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.6B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 9%, $100 in 24h volume, and $1.4K in liquidity.
Probability
9%
24h Volume
$100
Liquidity
$1.4K
This market is about a very specific line item in Bank of America’s second-quarter earnings materials: its provision for credit losses, and whether that figure comes in above $1.6 billion. That matters because the reserve is a direct read on how management is seeing borrower health, loan performance, and the risk environment heading into the quarter.
The question here is not Bank of America’s overall earnings, but the provision for credit losses reported for Q2 in the company’s official materials. For this market, the result will be decided using Bank of America’s own earnings release, investor presentation, or regulatory filing, with webcast recordings or transcripts used if the metric is not stated directly there. The market closes to a final answer based on the reported figure for that quarter, with August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET as the latest deadline if the company has not released the relevant materials earlier.
A provision for credit losses can move around quarter to quarter depending on management’s view of macro conditions, consumer and corporate stress, charge-offs, and loan growth. For Bank of America, a large, diversified lender, that single number can signal whether credit risk is easing or building faster than expected. The market is pricing disagreement over whether the Q2 reserve will stay below the $1.6 billion threshold or cross it.
The price can move when Bank of America files or previews its quarterly results, especially if management discusses reserve building, delinquency trends, charge-offs, or changes in the loan book. Any official earnings material that gives the exact provision figure, or a range that can be converted to a midpoint, will be decisive. If the earnings release omits the metric entirely, the rules say the market resolves to No, so whether the number is actually disclosed is as important as the size of the reserve.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$42.2K
Liquidity
$193.2K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 9% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Read the company’s official Q2 earnings release, investor presentation, and any related filing first, since those are the primary sources of truth. If the provision for credit losses is shown as a range, the midpoint counts for resolution, and only the most numerically precise version of the metric will be used. The main ambiguity risk is simple: make sure the figure is specifically for Q2 and specifically the provision for credit losses, not a different credit-related measure such as net charge-offs or allowance for credit losses.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.6B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 9%, $100 in 24h volume, and $1.4K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
8.5%
No
91.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 14, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bank of America's provision for credit losses for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Bank of America's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 9%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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